Geopolitical supply shocks from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of WTI crude oil pricing as traders assess June settlement levels. Global inventories are drawing down sharply at an average 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, supporting prices near $105–107 per barrel on May 18 amid elevated backwardation and firm refinery demand. EIA projections point to Brent averaging around $106 per barrel through June before easing if Hormuz traffic resumes and Middle East production recovers gradually by late summer. OPEC+ has signaled modest output adjustments for June while the UAE’s exit reduces spare capacity, adding further uncertainty. Weekly EIA inventory data and diplomatic updates on potential de-escalation represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance between sustained tightness and normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCrude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
$122,692 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$90
72%
$85
68%
$80
80%
$75
76%
$70
88%
$65
90%
$63
94%
$60
97%
$56
97%
$55
96%
$52
98%
$50
97%
$122,692 Vol.
$90
$25,154 Vol.
72%
$85
$5,174 Vol.
68%
$80
$5,701 Vol.
80%
$75
$15,583 Vol.
76%
$70
$19,604 Vol.
88%
$65
$848 Vol.
90%
$63
$8,949 Vol.
94%
$60
$21,018 Vol.
97%
$56
$4,740 Vol.
97%
$55
$2,859 Vol.
96%
$52
$5,714 Vol.
98%
$50
$7,349 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply shocks from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of WTI crude oil pricing as traders assess June settlement levels. Global inventories are drawing down sharply at an average 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, supporting prices near $105–107 per barrel on May 18 amid elevated backwardation and firm refinery demand. EIA projections point to Brent averaging around $106 per barrel through June before easing if Hormuz traffic resumes and Middle East production recovers gradually by late summer. OPEC+ has signaled modest output adjustments for June while the UAE’s exit reduces spare capacity, adding further uncertainty. Weekly EIA inventory data and diplomatic updates on potential de-escalation represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance between sustained tightness and normalization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Market Opened: Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ET
Volume
$122,692End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical supply shocks from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of WTI crude oil pricing as traders assess June settlement levels. Global inventories are drawing down sharply at an average 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, supporting prices near $105–107 per barrel on May 18 amid elevated backwardation and firm refinery demand. EIA projections point to Brent averaging around $106 per barrel through June before easing if Hormuz traffic resumes and Middle East production recovers gradually by late summer. OPEC+ has signaled modest output adjustments for June while the UAE’s exit reduces spare capacity, adding further uncertainty. Weekly EIA inventory data and diplomatic updates on potential de-escalation represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance between sustained tightness and normalization.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volume
$122,692End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 26, 2025, 6:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical supply shocks from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of WTI crude oil pricing as traders assess June settlement levels. Global inventories are drawing down sharply at an average 8.5 million barrels per day in the second quarter, supporting prices near $105–107 per barrel on May 18 amid elevated backwardation and firm refinery demand. EIA projections point to Brent averaging around $106 per barrel through June before easing if Hormuz traffic resumes and Middle East production recovers gradually by late summer. OPEC+ has signaled modest output adjustments for June while the UAE’s exit reduces spare capacity, adding further uncertainty. Weekly EIA inventory data and diplomatic updates on potential de-escalation represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance between sustained tightness and normalization.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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