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Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Market icon

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

$9,121,450 Vol.

Nov 21, 2025
Polymarket

$9,121,450 Vol.

Polymarket

October 29

$24,426 Vol.

No

October 30

$66,799 Vol.

Yes

October 31

$57,545 Vol.

Yes

November 1

$228,007 Vol.

Yes

November 2

$152,234 Vol.

Yes

November 3

$83,226 Vol.

Yes

November 4

$728,964 Vol.

No

November 5

$189,996 Vol.

Yes

November 6

$163,961 Vol.

Yes

November 7

$69,807 Vol.

No

November 8

$133,642 Vol.

Yes

November 9

$254,973 Vol.

Yes

November 10

$168,198 Vol.

Yes

November 11

$105,391 Vol.

No

November 12

$41,620 Vol.

No

November 13

$128,822 Vol.

Yes

November 14

$40,611 Vol.

No

November 15

$25,567 Vol.

No

November 16

$98,133 Vol.

Yes

November 17

$80,522 Vol.

No

November 18

$85,260 Vol.

Yes

November 19

$96,908 Vol.

Yes

November 20

$49,142 Vol.

No

November 21

$72,916 Vol.

Yes

November 22

$88,793 Vol.

Yes

November 23

$53,984 Vol.

Yes

November 24

$41,324 Vol.

No

November 25

$16,646 Vol.

No

November 26

$36,978 Vol.

No

November 27

$18,887 Vol.

Yes

November 28

$45,758 Vol.

No

November 29

$30,122 Vol.

No

November 30

$20,350 Vol.

No

December 1

$16,399 Vol.

No

December 2

$28,740 Vol.

No

December 3

$22,529 Vol.

No

December 4

$129,893 Vol.

Yes

December 5

$61,486 Vol.

No

December 6

$32,733 Vol.

No

December 7

$43,531 Vol.

No

December 8

$4,021,935 Vol.

Yes

December 9

$118,320 Vol.

No

December 10

$30,550 Vol.

No

December 11

$16,645 Vol.

No

December 12

$23,012 Vol.

Yes

December 13

$84,378 Vol.

No

December 14

$101,053 Vol.

Yes

December 15

$21,960 Vol.

No

December 16

$55,553 Vol.

Yes

December 17

$59,674 Vol.

No

December 18

$34,253 Vol.

Yes

December 19

$28,701 Vol.

No

December 20

$126,380 Vol.

No

December 21

$122,833 Vol.

Yes

December 22

$122,462 Vol.

Yes

December 23

$53,755 Vol.

No

December 24

$73,248 Vol.

Yes

December 25

$29,586 Vol.

Yes

December 26

$17,189 Vol.

Yes

December 27

$39,594 Vol.

No

December 28

$19,989 Vol.

No

December 29

$28,354 Vol.

No

December 30

$28,941 Vol.

No

December 31

$28,263 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$9,121,450
終了日
Dec 31, 2025
マーケット開始日
Nov 30, 2025, 2:19 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

提案された結果: No

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: No

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?」はPolymarket上の64+個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「October 30」で100%、次いで「October 31」が100%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、100¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に100%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?」は$9.1 millionの総取引量を生み出しています(Oct 29, 2025のマーケット開始以来)。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている64+個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?」の現在のフロントランナーは「October 30」で100%であり、市場がこの結果に100%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「October 31」で100%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。