Market icon
政治·イスラエル

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Market icon
政治·イスラエル

Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?

Ended: Jan 31

Ended: Jan 31

$6,162,267 Vol.

Jan 31, 2026
Polymarket

$6,162,267 Vol.

Polymarket

January 1

$25,889 Vol.

No

January 2

$287,801 Vol.

Yes

January 3

$100,681 Vol.

Yes

January 4

$39,099 Vol.

Yes

January 5

$60,538 Vol.

Yes

January 6

$77,964 Vol.

Yes

January 7

$73,560 Vol.

Yes

January 8

$70,751 Vol.

Yes

January 9

$298,784 Vol.

Yes

January 10

$354,247 Vol.

No

January 11

$160,830 Vol.

Yes

January 12

$189,871 Vol.

No

January 13

$94,012 Vol.

No

January 14

$81,214 Vol.

No

January 15

$143,495 Vol.

Yes

January 16

$1,623,703 Vol.

No

January 17

$126,201 Vol.

No

January 18

$143,752 Vol.

No

January 19

$104,065 Vol.

Yes

January 20

$106,235 Vol.

No

January 21

$219,989 Vol.

Yes

January 22

$136,620 Vol.

No

January 23

$149,189 Vol.

No

January 24

$63,212 Vol.

No

January 25

$130,907 Vol.

Yes

January 26

$170,264 Vol.

Yes

January 27

$189,198 Vol.

Yes

January 28

$314,159 Vol.

No

January 29

$215,528 Vol.

No

January 30

$271,274 Vol.

Yes

January 31

$139,234 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory.

A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones.

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.

The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.

If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$6,162,267
終了日
Jan 31, 2026
マーケット開始日
Dec 31, 2025, 12:39 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Lebanese soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Lebanon ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Lebanon counts, including buffer zones. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Lebanon territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The primary solution resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

提案された結果: No

異議申し立てなし

最終結果: No

外部リンクに注意してください。

よくある質問

「Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?」はPolymarket上の31個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「January 2」で100%、次いで「January 3」が100%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、100¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に100%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?」は$6.2 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 31, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている31個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?」の現在のフロントランナーは「January 2」で100%であり、市場がこの結果に100%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「January 3」で100%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Will Israel strike Lebanon on...?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。