Anthropic's Claude AI has faced a relentless wave of outages and elevated errors throughout April 2026, with its official status page logging disruptions on at least 11 distinct days by April 17—including major incidents like Claude.ai downtime on April 13, widespread errors across Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code on April 15, and ongoing issues with Cowork and model errors on April 16. This pattern of reliability challenges, amid rapid scaling for models like the newly released Claude Opus 4.7, has driven trader consensus to an 88.5% implied probability for 12+ down days, as aggregated bets reflect expectations of at least one more incident before month-end. Minor outcomes like 9-11 days (11%) account for potential stabilization, while underlying infrastructure strains signal persistent risks for AI platform uptime.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日12回以上 89%
9～11 11%
6〜8 <1%
$65,013 Vol.
$65,013 Vol.
2026/04/30
6〜8
<1%
9～11
11%
12回以上
89%
12回以上 89%
9～11 11%
6〜8 <1%
$65,013 Vol.
$65,013 Vol.
2026/04/30
6〜8
$9,796 Vol.
<1%
9～11
$8,230 Vol.
11%
12回以上
$14,690 Vol.
89%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude AI has faced a relentless wave of outages and elevated errors throughout April 2026, with its official status page logging disruptions on at least 11 distinct days by April 17—including major incidents like Claude.ai downtime on April 13, widespread errors across Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code on April 15, and ongoing issues with Cowork and model errors on April 16. This pattern of reliability challenges, amid rapid scaling for models like the newly released Claude Opus 4.7, has driven trader consensus to an 88.5% implied probability for 12+ down days, as aggregated bets reflect expectations of at least one more incident before month-end. Minor outcomes like 9-11 days (11%) account for potential stabilization, while underlying infrastructure strains signal persistent risks for AI platform uptime.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
音量
$65,013終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Anthropic's Claude AI has faced a relentless wave of outages and elevated errors throughout April 2026, with its official status page logging disruptions on at least 11 distinct days by April 17—including major incidents like Claude.ai downtime on April 13, widespread errors across Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code on April 15, and ongoing issues with Cowork and model errors on April 16. This pattern of reliability challenges, amid rapid scaling for models like the newly released Claude Opus 4.7, has driven trader consensus to an 88.5% implied probability for 12+ down days, as aggregated bets reflect expectations of at least one more incident before month-end. Minor outcomes like 9-11 days (11%) account for potential stabilization, while underlying infrastructure strains signal persistent risks for AI platform uptime.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of April during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in April 2026 is finalized. If the final day in April 2026 has not been finalized by May 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in April which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
音量
$65,013終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude AI has faced a relentless wave of outages and elevated errors throughout April 2026, with its official status page logging disruptions on at least 11 distinct days by April 17—including major incidents like Claude.ai downtime on April 13, widespread errors across Claude.ai, API, and Claude Code on April 15, and ongoing issues with Cowork and model errors on April 16. This pattern of reliability challenges, amid rapid scaling for models like the newly released Claude Opus 4.7, has driven trader consensus to an 88.5% implied probability for 12+ down days, as aggregated bets reflect expectations of at least one more incident before month-end. Minor outcomes like 9-11 days (11%) account for potential stabilization, while underlying infrastructure strains signal persistent risks for AI platform uptime.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問