Eric Ciotti's 98.4% implied probability in the Nice mayoral race reflects traders' strong consensus on his dominance as the right-wing frontrunner, bolstered by incumbent Christian Estrosi's June 2024 announcement that he will not seek a fourth term, clearing the path for Ciotti's regional presidency and local popularity to prevail in the 2026 municipal election. Recent polls project Ciotti leading the first round by 20-30 points over challengers like Jean-Marc Governatori or left-wing candidates, with the National Rally's regional strength adding momentum. Realistic challenges include an unexpected centrist surge, anti-RN electoral alliance, or personal scandal disrupting his lead before the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日エリック・シオッティ 98.5%
クリスチャン・エストロジ 1.4%
ジャン＝マルク・ゴヴェルナトリ <1%
ミレイユ・ダミアノ <1%
$274,881 Vol.
$274,881 Vol.
May 22, 2026
エリック・シオッティ
99%
クリスチャン・エストロジ
1%
ジャン＝マルク・ゴヴェルナトリ
<1%
ミレイユ・ダミアノ
<1%
ジュリエット・シェネル＝ルルー
<1%
エリック・シオッティ 98.5%
クリスチャン・エストロジ 1.4%
ジャン＝マルク・ゴヴェルナトリ <1%
ミレイユ・ダミアノ <1%
$274,881 Vol.
$274,881 Vol.
May 22, 2026
エリック・シオッティ
$157,031 Vol.
99%
クリスチャン・エストロジ
$117,850 Vol.
1%
ジャン＝マルク・ゴヴェルナトリ
$0 Vol.
<1%
ミレイユ・ダミアノ
$0 Vol.
<1%
ジュリエット・シェネル＝ルルー
$0 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).
The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).
マーケット開始日： Nov 14, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
音量
$274,881終了日
May 22, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 14, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).The 2026 Nice municipal election is scheduled for May 15 and May 22, 2026. The Mayor of Nice, France is elected via a three-round system; if no candidate obtains an absolute majority after two rounds of voting the election proceeds to a third round which requires only a simple majority. In case of a tie, the oldest candidate wins.
This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins this election.
If the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Ministry of the Interior (élections.interieur.gouv.fr).
音量
$274,881終了日
May 22, 2026マーケット開始日
Nov 14, 2025, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Eric Ciotti's 98.4% implied probability in the Nice mayoral race reflects traders' strong consensus on his dominance as the right-wing frontrunner, bolstered by incumbent Christian Estrosi's June 2024 announcement that he will not seek a fourth term, clearing the path for Ciotti's regional presidency and local popularity to prevail in the 2026 municipal election. Recent polls project Ciotti leading the first round by 20-30 points over challengers like Jean-Marc Governatori or left-wing candidates, with the National Rally's regional strength adding momentum. Realistic challenges include an unexpected centrist surge, anti-RN electoral alliance, or personal scandal disrupting his lead before the vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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