US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes against Iranian missile production facilities, air defenses, and defense industries, including recent hits on sites in Tehran, Yazd, and Parchin as of March 29, marking over 11,000 US targets struck since the February 28 war onset that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel and drone attacks on Gulf states hosting US bases, prompting UK, France, and Germany to signal readiness for defensive strikes on Iranian launch capabilities, while UAE, Saudi Arabia, and others weigh direct involvement. Iran is reviewing a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators amid economic strain, but Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations heighten escalation risks before April 30 resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$535,779 Vol.
2026/04/30
UAE
15%
Saudi Arabia
14%
Bahrain
6%
Kuwait
6%
Any E.U. Country
6%
Turkey
5%
Qatar
5%
Jordan
5%
UK
4%
France
4%
Oman
4%
Germany
2%
Canada
1%
$535,779 Vol.
UAE
$73,995 Vol.
15%
Saudi Arabia
$96,902 Vol.
14%
Bahrain
$1,322 Vol.
6%
Kuwait
$1,678 Vol.
6%
Any E.U. Country
$6,701 Vol.
6%
Turkey
$16,660 Vol.
5%
Qatar
$765 Vol.
5%
Jordan
$1,098 Vol.
5%
UK
$106,837 Vol.
4%
France
$149,175 Vol.
4%
Oman
$411 Vol.
4%
Germany
$80,350 Vol.
2%
Canada
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes against Iranian missile production facilities, air defenses, and defense industries, including recent hits on sites in Tehran, Yazd, and Parchin as of March 29, marking over 11,000 US targets struck since the February 28 war onset that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel and drone attacks on Gulf states hosting US bases, prompting UK, France, and Germany to signal readiness for defensive strikes on Iranian launch capabilities, while UAE, Saudi Arabia, and others weigh direct involvement. Iran is reviewing a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators amid economic strain, but Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations heighten escalation risks before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ET
音量
$535,779終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes against Iranian missile production facilities, air defenses, and defense industries, including recent hits on sites in Tehran, Yazd, and Parchin as of March 29, marking over 11,000 US targets struck since the February 28 war onset that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel and drone attacks on Gulf states hosting US bases, prompting UK, France, and Germany to signal readiness for defensive strikes on Iranian launch capabilities, while UAE, Saudi Arabia, and others weigh direct involvement. Iran is reviewing a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators amid economic strain, but Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations heighten escalation risks before April 30 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$535,779終了日
2026/04/30マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 6:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes against Iranian missile production facilities, air defenses, and defense industries, including recent hits on sites in Tehran, Yazd, and Parchin as of March 29, marking over 11,000 US targets struck since the February 28 war onset that killed Supreme Leader Khamenei. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israel and drone attacks on Gulf states hosting US bases, prompting UK, France, and Germany to signal readiness for defensive strikes on Iranian launch capabilities, while UAE, Saudi Arabia, and others weigh direct involvement. Iran is reviewing a US 15-point ceasefire proposal via mediators amid economic strain, but Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations heighten escalation risks before April 30 resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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