Amid the US-Israeli air campaign against Iran that began February 28—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, destroying much of Iran's missile arsenal, and securing air superiority—Pentagon reinforcements including Marine Expeditionary Units and the 82nd Airborne have surged over 50,000 US troops to Gulf bases, fueling speculation of ground operations targeting Kharg Island to control oil exports. President Trump's April 1 address warned of infrastructure strikes unless Tehran capitulates quickly, while recent reports detail finalized plans for limited invasions without full-scale commitment. Traders price an 84% implied probability of deliberate US forces entering Iranian territory by December 31 and 78% by April 30, reflecting buildup momentum despite no confirmed boots-on-ground entry as of April 3 and disputed March 31 rumors. Senate war powers debates and Iranian retaliation risks loom as key variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$105,223,374 Vol.
2026/03/03
3月31日
<1%
4月30日
78%
12月31日
84%
$105,223,374 Vol.
3月31日
$71,993,921 Vol.
<1%
4月30日
$21,938,622 Vol.
78%
12月31日
$9,267,881 Vol.
84%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the US-Israeli air campaign against Iran that began February 28—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, destroying much of Iran's missile arsenal, and securing air superiority—Pentagon reinforcements including Marine Expeditionary Units and the 82nd Airborne have surged over 50,000 US troops to Gulf bases, fueling speculation of ground operations targeting Kharg Island to control oil exports. President Trump's April 1 address warned of infrastructure strikes unless Tehran capitulates quickly, while recent reports detail finalized plans for limited invasions without full-scale commitment. Traders price an 84% implied probability of deliberate US forces entering Iranian territory by December 31 and 78% by April 30, reflecting buildup momentum despite no confirmed boots-on-ground entry as of April 3 and disputed March 31 rumors. Senate war powers debates and Iranian retaliation risks loom as key variables.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET
音量
$105,223,374マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid the US-Israeli air campaign against Iran that began February 28—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, destroying much of Iran's missile arsenal, and securing air superiority—Pentagon reinforcements including Marine Expeditionary Units and the 82nd Airborne have surged over 50,000 US troops to Gulf bases, fueling speculation of ground operations targeting Kharg Island to control oil exports. President Trump's April 1 address warned of infrastructure strikes unless Tehran capitulates quickly, while recent reports detail finalized plans for limited invasions without full-scale commitment. Traders price an 84% implied probability of deliberate US forces entering Iranian territory by December 31 and 78% by April 30, reflecting buildup momentum despite no confirmed boots-on-ground entry as of April 3 and disputed March 31 rumors. Senate war powers debates and Iranian retaliation risks loom as key variables.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$105,223,374マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...提案された結果: いいえ
異議申し立てなし
最終結果: いいえ
Amid the US-Israeli air campaign against Iran that began February 28—killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, destroying much of Iran's missile arsenal, and securing air superiority—Pentagon reinforcements including Marine Expeditionary Units and the 82nd Airborne have surged over 50,000 US troops to Gulf bases, fueling speculation of ground operations targeting Kharg Island to control oil exports. President Trump's April 1 address warned of infrastructure strikes unless Tehran capitulates quickly, while recent reports detail finalized plans for limited invasions without full-scale commitment. Traders price an 84% implied probability of deliberate US forces entering Iranian territory by December 31 and 78% by April 30, reflecting buildup momentum despite no confirmed boots-on-ground entry as of April 3 and disputed March 31 rumors. Senate war powers debates and Iranian retaliation risks loom as key variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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