SpaceX's confidential IPO filing on April 1, targeting a valuation above $1.75 trillion and potentially over $2 trillion, has driven trader consensus toward the 1.5T-2.5T range, with 44% implied probability for 1.5T-2.0T edging out 35.5% for the next bin amid Starlink's projected $20 billion 2026 revenue and reusable Falcon 9 dominance. Elon Musk's dismissal of $2 trillion figures as "BS" underscores valuation uncertainty, while Starship's next flight in 4-6 weeks and ambitions for hourly launches highlight differentiating factors like unmatched launch cadence and xAI integration for orbital compute. Competitive lags by rivals in heavy-lift reusability keep sentiment elevated, though a June listing looms as the key resolution catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$1,694,239 Vol.
$1,694,239 Vol.
1兆ドル未満
2%
1.0兆ドル〜1.5兆ドル
6%
1.5兆～2.0兆ドル
44%
2.0兆～2.5兆ドル
36%
2.5兆〜3.0兆ドル
6%
3.0兆ドル～3.5兆ドル
4%
3.5兆ドル以上
1%
2028年以前に上場しない
3%
$1,694,239 Vol.
$1,694,239 Vol.
1兆ドル未満
$35,167 Vol.
2%
1.0兆ドル〜1.5兆ドル
$28,037 Vol.
6%
1.5兆～2.0兆ドル
$43,202 Vol.
44%
2.0兆～2.5兆ドル
$41,005 Vol.
36%
2.5兆〜3.0兆ドル
$792,416 Vol.
6%
3.0兆ドル～3.5兆ドル
$450,076 Vol.
4%
3.5兆ドル以上
$45,544 Vol.
1%
2028年以前に上場しない
$258,791 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's confidential IPO filing on April 1, targeting a valuation above $1.75 trillion and potentially over $2 trillion, has driven trader consensus toward the 1.5T-2.5T range, with 44% implied probability for 1.5T-2.0T edging out 35.5% for the next bin amid Starlink's projected $20 billion 2026 revenue and reusable Falcon 9 dominance. Elon Musk's dismissal of $2 trillion figures as "BS" underscores valuation uncertainty, while Starship's next flight in 4-6 weeks and ambitions for hourly launches highlight differentiating factors like unmatched launch cadence and xAI integration for orbital compute. Competitive lags by rivals in heavy-lift reusability keep sentiment elevated, though a June listing looms as the key resolution catalyst.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
マーケット開始日： Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
音量
$1,694,239マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.SpaceX's confidential IPO filing on April 1, targeting a valuation above $1.75 trillion and potentially over $2 trillion, has driven trader consensus toward the 1.5T-2.5T range, with 44% implied probability for 1.5T-2.0T edging out 35.5% for the next bin amid Starlink's projected $20 billion 2026 revenue and reusable Falcon 9 dominance. Elon Musk's dismissal of $2 trillion figures as "BS" underscores valuation uncertainty, while Starship's next flight in 4-6 weeks and ambitions for hourly launches highlight differentiating factors like unmatched launch cadence and xAI integration for orbital compute. Competitive lags by rivals in heavy-lift reusability keep sentiment elevated, though a June listing looms as the key resolution catalyst.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
音量
$1,694,239マーケット開始日
Mar 25, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...SpaceX's confidential IPO filing on April 1, targeting a valuation above $1.75 trillion and potentially over $2 trillion, has driven trader consensus toward the 1.5T-2.5T range, with 44% implied probability for 1.5T-2.0T edging out 35.5% for the next bin amid Starlink's projected $20 billion 2026 revenue and reusable Falcon 9 dominance. Elon Musk's dismissal of $2 trillion figures as "BS" underscores valuation uncertainty, while Starship's next flight in 4-6 weeks and ambitions for hourly launches highlight differentiating factors like unmatched launch cadence and xAI integration for orbital compute. Competitive lags by rivals in heavy-lift reusability keep sentiment elevated, though a June listing looms as the key resolution catalyst.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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