Incumbent Democratic Senator Ron Wyden holds a commanding lead in the Oregon U.S. Senate race, with recent polls showing him ahead by 30–40 points over Republican nominee Joaquin Vergera-Cortes, reflecting Oregon's deep-blue status where Democrats routinely secure statewide victories. Wyden's long tenure since 1996, strong fundraising, and alignment with key voting blocs like urban Portland and independents have solidified trader consensus at 92% implied probability for a Democratic win. The GOP challenger's primary victory amid internal divisions and limited national support has failed to close the gap, despite post-primary efforts. While a massive Republican national wave or unforeseen Wyden scandal could shift dynamics ahead of the November 5 general election, such scenarios remain low-probability outliers given historical incumbency advantages and polling trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$814 Vol.
92%
共和党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ron Wyden holds a commanding lead in the Oregon U.S. Senate race, with recent polls showing him ahead by 30–40 points over Republican nominee Joaquin Vergera-Cortes, reflecting Oregon's deep-blue status where Democrats routinely secure statewide victories. Wyden's long tenure since 1996, strong fundraising, and alignment with key voting blocs like urban Portland and independents have solidified trader consensus at 92% implied probability for a Democratic win. The GOP challenger's primary victory amid internal divisions and limited national support has failed to close the gap, despite post-primary efforts. While a massive Republican national wave or unforeseen Wyden scandal could shift dynamics ahead of the November 5 general election, such scenarios remain low-probability outliers given historical incumbency advantages and polling trends.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$814終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Ron Wyden holds a commanding lead in the Oregon U.S. Senate race, with recent polls showing him ahead by 30–40 points over Republican nominee Joaquin Vergera-Cortes, reflecting Oregon's deep-blue status where Democrats routinely secure statewide victories. Wyden's long tenure since 1996, strong fundraising, and alignment with key voting blocs like urban Portland and independents have solidified trader consensus at 92% implied probability for a Democratic win. The GOP challenger's primary victory amid internal divisions and limited national support has failed to close the gap, despite post-primary efforts. While a massive Republican national wave or unforeseen Wyden scandal could shift dynamics ahead of the November 5 general election, such scenarios remain low-probability outliers given historical incumbency advantages and polling trends.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$814終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Ron Wyden holds a commanding lead in the Oregon U.S. Senate race, with recent polls showing him ahead by 30–40 points over Republican nominee Joaquin Vergera-Cortes, reflecting Oregon's deep-blue status where Democrats routinely secure statewide victories. Wyden's long tenure since 1996, strong fundraising, and alignment with key voting blocs like urban Portland and independents have solidified trader consensus at 92% implied probability for a Democratic win. The GOP challenger's primary victory amid internal divisions and limited national support has failed to close the gap, despite post-primary efforts. While a massive Republican national wave or unforeseen Wyden scandal could shift dynamics ahead of the November 5 general election, such scenarios remain low-probability outliers given historical incumbency advantages and polling trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問