Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, with recent polling averages showing him ahead by 15-20 points over Republican challenger Tim Walsh, driving trader consensus to 92% for a Democratic win. Oregon's strong Democratic lean—its last Republican Senate victory dates to 1996—combined with Merkley's fundraising dominance and proven incumbency advantage in a state rated Safe Democratic by forecasters like Cook Political Report, solidify this positioning. No major shifts have occurred in the past 30 days, including post-Labor Day surveys confirming the gap. While a massive national Republican wave, late scandal, or unforeseen health event could narrow odds, historical base rates for such safe seats suggest minimal risk before the November 5 election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$799 Vol.
92%
共和党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, with recent polling averages showing him ahead by 15-20 points over Republican challenger Tim Walsh, driving trader consensus to 92% for a Democratic win. Oregon's strong Democratic lean—its last Republican Senate victory dates to 1996—combined with Merkley's fundraising dominance and proven incumbency advantage in a state rated Safe Democratic by forecasters like Cook Political Report, solidify this positioning. No major shifts have occurred in the past 30 days, including post-Labor Day surveys confirming the gap. While a massive national Republican wave, late scandal, or unforeseen health event could narrow odds, historical base rates for such safe seats suggest minimal risk before the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
音量
$799終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, with recent polling averages showing him ahead by 15-20 points over Republican challenger Tim Walsh, driving trader consensus to 92% for a Democratic win. Oregon's strong Democratic lean—its last Republican Senate victory dates to 1996—combined with Merkley's fundraising dominance and proven incumbency advantage in a state rated Safe Democratic by forecasters like Cook Political Report, solidify this positioning. No major shifts have occurred in the past 30 days, including post-Labor Day surveys confirming the gap. While a massive national Republican wave, late scandal, or unforeseen health event could narrow odds, historical base rates for such safe seats suggest minimal risk before the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$799終了日
Nov 3, 2026マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jeff Merkley holds a commanding lead in Oregon's U.S. Senate race, with recent polling averages showing him ahead by 15-20 points over Republican challenger Tim Walsh, driving trader consensus to 92% for a Democratic win. Oregon's strong Democratic lean—its last Republican Senate victory dates to 1996—combined with Merkley's fundraising dominance and proven incumbency advantage in a state rated Safe Democratic by forecasters like Cook Political Report, solidify this positioning. No major shifts have occurred in the past 30 days, including post-Labor Day surveys confirming the gap. While a massive national Republican wave, late scandal, or unforeseen health event could narrow odds, historical base rates for such safe seats suggest minimal risk before the November 5 election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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