Pacto Histórico (PH), President Gustavo Petro's left-wing coalition, commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96.7% implied probability for 24-26 seats in Colombia's Senate, driven by final preliminary results from the March 2022 legislative election showing PH securing exactly 25 seats after full vote certification. This outcome reflects PH's strong proportional representation performance via closed-list voting, bolstered by urban and youth turnout despite fragmented opposition. With markets awaiting official National Registry confirmation, rare shifts could arise from recounts in tight departmental lists, overseas ballot adjustments, or legal challenges to vote tallies, though historical patterns indicate minimal post-certification changes in Colombia's 108-seat Senate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日24〜26 96.7%
27〜29 4.0%
21〜23 1.0%
18未満 <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 8, 2026
18未満
<1%
18～20
<1%
21〜23
1%
24〜26
97%
27〜29
4%
30以上
<1%
24〜26 96.7%
27〜29 4.0%
21〜23 1.0%
18未満 <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 8, 2026
18未満
$0 Vol.
<1%
18～20
$0 Vol.
<1%
21〜23
$0 Vol.
1%
24〜26
$0 Vol.
97%
27〜29
$0 Vol.
4%
30以上
$0 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
マーケット開始日： Mar 5, 2026, 12:04 PM ET
音量
$0終了日
Mar 8, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 5, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Colombia on 8 March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Colombian Senate as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by Pacto Historico in the Senate.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
音量
$0終了日
Mar 8, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 5, 2026, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Pacto Histórico (PH), President Gustavo Petro's left-wing coalition, commands overwhelming trader consensus at 96.7% implied probability for 24-26 seats in Colombia's Senate, driven by final preliminary results from the March 2022 legislative election showing PH securing exactly 25 seats after full vote certification. This outcome reflects PH's strong proportional representation performance via closed-list voting, bolstered by urban and youth turnout despite fragmented opposition. With markets awaiting official National Registry confirmation, rare shifts could arise from recounts in tight departmental lists, overseas ballot adjustments, or legal challenges to vote tallies, though historical patterns indicate minimal post-certification changes in Colombia's 108-seat Senate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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