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2026年6月30日までにMH 370の水中残骸が見つかりましたか？

Market icon

2026年6月30日までにMH 370の水中残骸が見つかりましたか？

はい

5% chance
Polymarket

$86,994 Vol.

はい

5% chance
Polymarket

$86,994 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if new underwater wreckage from Malaysia Airlines Flight MH 370 is found by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolving this market, 'found' means that new underwater wreckage must be discovered between December 4, 2025 and June 30, 2026. Wreckage that washed ashore/afloat and previous findings of wreckage will NOT qualify - only underwater wreckage will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". It is not necessary for the wreckage to be recovered, only that its location is definitively identified. If wreckage is located before the resolution date, but it unknown as to whether it came from MH370, this market may stay open until a consensus has been reached as to the wreckage's origin. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94.8% implied probability for MH370 underwater wreckage discovery by June 30, driven by Ocean Infinity's recent seabed survey concluding January 23 without confirmed findings after scanning 7,571 square kilometers in the southern Indian Ocean—their "no find, no fee" effort under a 2025 Malaysian deal. This latest letdown, announced March 8, echoes over a decade of fruitless hunts despite debris clues and advanced robotics, underscoring the vast search area's challenges and data uncertainties. With just three months left and families pressing for contract extensions amid no new operations greenlit, an upset would require swift government approval for resumed scans plus a breakthrough in precise location data from unverified leads like recent barnacle analysis on drifters.

Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94.8% implied probability for MH370 underwater wreckage discovery by June 30, driven by Ocean Infinity's recent seabed survey concluding January 23 without confirmed findings after scanning 7,571 square kilometers in the southern Indian Ocean—their "no find, no fee" effort under a 2025 Malaysian deal. This latest letdown, announced March 8, echoes over a decade of fruitless hunts despite debris clues and advanced robotics, underscoring the vast search area's challenges and data uncertainties. With just three months left and families pressing for contract extensions amid no new operations greenlit, an upset would require swift government approval for resumed scans plus a breakthrough in precise location data from unverified leads like recent barnacle analysis on drifters.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to “Yes” if new underwater wreckage from Malaysia Airlines Flight MH 370 is found by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolving this market, 'found' means that new underwater wreckage must be discovered between December 4, 2025 and June 30, 2026. Wreckage that washed ashore/afloat and previous findings of wreckage will NOT qualify - only underwater wreckage will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". It is not necessary for the wreckage to be recovered, only that its location is definitively identified. If wreckage is located before the resolution date, but it unknown as to whether it came from MH370, this market may stay open until a consensus has been reached as to the wreckage's origin. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94.8% implied probability for MH370 underwater wreckage discovery by June 30, driven by Ocean Infinity's recent seabed survey concluding January 23 without confirmed findings after scanning 7,571 square kilometers in the southern Indian Ocean—their "no find, no fee" effort under a 2025 Malaysian deal. This latest letdown, announced March 8, echoes over a decade of fruitless hunts despite debris clues and advanced robotics, underscoring the vast search area's challenges and data uncertainties. With just three months left and families pressing for contract extensions amid no new operations greenlit, an upset would require swift government approval for resumed scans plus a breakthrough in precise location data from unverified leads like recent barnacle analysis on drifters.

Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 94.8% implied probability for MH370 underwater wreckage discovery by June 30, driven by Ocean Infinity's recent seabed survey concluding January 23 without confirmed findings after scanning 7,571 square kilometers in the southern Indian Ocean—their "no find, no fee" effort under a 2025 Malaysian deal. This latest letdown, announced March 8, echoes over a decade of fruitless hunts despite debris clues and advanced robotics, underscoring the vast search area's challenges and data uncertainties. With just three months left and families pressing for contract extensions amid no new operations greenlit, an upset would require swift government approval for resumed scans plus a breakthrough in precise location data from unverified leads like recent barnacle analysis on drifters.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「2026年6月30日までにMH 370の水中残骸が見つかりましたか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「MH370の水中残骸は2026年6月30日までに発見されるか？」で5%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、5¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に5%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年6月30日までにMH 370の水中残骸が見つかりましたか？」は$87Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 4, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年6月30日までにMH 370の水中残骸が見つかりましたか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「2026年6月30日までにMH 370の水中残骸が見つかりましたか？」の現在のリーダーは「MH370の水中残骸は2026年6月30日までに発見されるか？」でわずか5%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年6月30日までにMH 370の水中残骸が見つかりましたか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。