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政治·プライマリ

KY -04共和党予備選

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政治·プライマリ

KY -04共和党予備選

トーマス・マッシー 69%

エド・ガルレイン 29.5%

ニコール・リー・エシントン <1%

ロバート・ウェルズ・ジュニア <1%

Polymarket

$233,866 Vol.

トーマス・マッシー 69%

エド・ガルレイン 29.5%

ニコール・リー・エシントン <1%

ロバート・ウェルズ・ジュニア <1%

Polymarket

$233,866 Vol.

トーマス・マッシー

$163,041 Vol.

69%

エド・ガルレイン

$71,025 Vol.

30%

ニコール・リー・エシントン

$0 Vol.

<1%

ロバート・ウェルズ・ジュニア

$0 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a commanding trader consensus at 67.5% to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by recent polls showing him ahead of Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, a retired Navy SEAL and farmer. Quantus Insights' April 9 survey gave Massie 47% to Gallrein's 38% among likely voters, with 15% undecided, underscoring Massie's incumbency edge, history of blowout primaries (75% in 2024), and strong Q1 fundraising exceeding $2.5 million from over 20,000 donors. Gallrein's 29.5% reflects robust Trump backing and GOP establishment support like Rep. Andy Barr's endorsement, but polls suggest limited traction so far. Fringe candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. register negligible support. Early voting and turnout among key blocs could tip this contested race in the solidly Republican district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$233,866
終了日
2026/05/19
マーケット開始日
Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a commanding trader consensus at 67.5% to win Kentucky's 4th Congressional District Republican primary on May 19, driven by recent polls showing him ahead of Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, a retired Navy SEAL and farmer. Quantus Insights' April 9 survey gave Massie 47% to Gallrein's 38% among likely voters, with 15% undecided, underscoring Massie's incumbency edge, history of blowout primaries (75% in 2024), and strong Q1 fundraising exceeding $2.5 million from over 20,000 donors. Gallrein's 29.5% reflects robust Trump backing and GOP establishment support like Rep. Andy Barr's endorsement, but polls suggest limited traction so far. Fringe candidates Nicole Lee Ethington and Robert Wells Jr. register negligible support. Early voting and turnout among key blocs could tip this contested race in the solidly Republican district.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$233,866
終了日
2026/05/19
マーケット開始日
Dec 1, 2025, 4:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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よくある質問

「KY -04共和党予備選」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「トーマス・マッシー」で69%、次いで「エド・ガルレイン」が30%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、69¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に69%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「KY -04共和党予備選」は$233.9Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Dec 1, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「KY -04共和党予備選」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「KY -04共和党予備選」の現在のフロントランナーは「トーマス・マッシー」で69%であり、市場がこの結果に69%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「エド・ガルレイン」で30%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「KY -04共和党予備選」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。