Trader consensus favors 32°C as Lucknow's highest temperature on March 24, with 34% implied probability, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs near 32-33°C amid seasonal warming trends. Historical March maxima in Lucknow average 31-33°C, but recent northerly winds and partial cloud cover introduce variability, tempering hotter outcomes like 35°C+ (under 13% combined). Differentiating the tight race between 31-33°C hinges on urban heat island effects amplifying peaks by 1-2°C versus rural stations, plus shortwave radiation forecasts—clear skies could nudge toward 33°C, while haze or fronts favor 31°C or below. Monitor IMD's 12Z update for refined guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日3月24日のラクナウの最高気温は?
3月24日のラクナウの最高気温は?
31℃以下 35%
32℃ 34%
33°C 32%
34℃ 25%
31℃以下
26%
32℃
34%
33°C
24%
34℃
17%
35°C
16%
36℃
4%
37°C
14%
38℃
3%
39°C
2%
40°C
2%
41°C以上
2%
31℃以下 35%
32℃ 34%
33°C 32%
34℃ 25%
31℃以下
26%
32℃
34%
33°C
24%
34℃
17%
35°C
16%
36℃
4%
37°C
14%
38℃
3%
39°C
2%
40°C
2%
41°C以上
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 32°C as Lucknow's highest temperature on March 24, with 34% implied probability, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) ensemble forecasts projecting daytime highs near 32-33°C amid seasonal warming trends. Historical March maxima in Lucknow average 31-33°C, but recent northerly winds and partial cloud cover introduce variability, tempering hotter outcomes like 35°C+ (under 13% combined). Differentiating the tight race between 31-33°C hinges on urban heat island effects amplifying peaks by 1-2°C versus rural stations, plus shortwave radiation forecasts—clear skies could nudge toward 33°C, while haze or fronts favor 31°C or below. Monitor IMD's 12Z update for refined guidance.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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