Trader consensus tilts toward a 13°C high in Seoul on March 24 at 35.5% implied probability, propelled by the latest Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 12-14°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly airflow. Differentiating the tight race with 12°C (28%) and 14°C (20%), short-range model spreads hinge on afternoon cloud cover from an approaching weak frontal boundary: fuller cloudiness could cap peaks at 12°C by reducing insolation, while partial clearing boosts to 14°C, with 13°C as the ensemble mean reflecting historical late-March norms of 11-13°C amid this year's anomalously warm spring pattern. Traders eye final KMA hourly updates for resolution clarity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
13°C 36%
12°C 28%
14°C 21%
15°C or higher 8%
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
4%
11°C
7%
12°C
28%
13°C
36%
14°C
21%
15°C or higher
8%
13°C 36%
12°C 28%
14°C 21%
15°C or higher 8%
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
4%
11°C
7%
12°C
28%
13°C
36%
14°C
21%
15°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus tilts toward a 13°C high in Seoul on March 24 at 35.5% implied probability, propelled by the latest Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and ECMWF ensemble forecasts averaging 12-14°C under a persistent high-pressure ridge ushering mild southerly airflow. Differentiating the tight race with 12°C (28%) and 14°C (20%), short-range model spreads hinge on afternoon cloud cover from an approaching weak frontal boundary: fuller cloudiness could cap peaks at 12°C by reducing insolation, while partial clearing boosts to 14°C, with 13°C as the ensemble mean reflecting historical late-March norms of 11-13°C amid this year's anomalously warm spring pattern. Traders eye final KMA hourly updates for resolution clarity.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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