Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors mild conditions in Lucknow on March 23, with 54.5% implied probability for 31°C or below and 31.5% for exactly 32°C, driven by the India Meteorological Department's latest forecast predicting a daytime high near 31°C amid lingering winter patterns. Recent observations show maximums holding steady at 29-31°C over the past week, influenced by northerly winds suppressing heat advection from drier interiors. Seasonal climatology supports this, as late March averages hover around 32°C historically, but cooler soil moisture retention and low humidity—around 40-50%—limit convective heating. Upcoming hourly model updates from IMD could shift odds if cloud cover dissipates unexpectedly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
31°C or below 54%
32°C 32%
33°C 11%
35°C 2.5%
$123,401 Vol.
$123,401 Vol.
31°C or below
54%
32°C
32%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
31°C or below 54%
32°C 32%
33°C 11%
35°C 2.5%
$123,401 Vol.
$123,401 Vol.
31°C or below
54%
32°C
32%
33°C
11%
34°C
2%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors mild conditions in Lucknow on March 23, with 54.5% implied probability for 31°C or below and 31.5% for exactly 32°C, driven by the India Meteorological Department's latest forecast predicting a daytime high near 31°C amid lingering winter patterns. Recent observations show maximums holding steady at 29-31°C over the past week, influenced by northerly winds suppressing heat advection from drier interiors. Seasonal climatology supports this, as late March averages hover around 32°C historically, but cooler soil moisture retention and low humidity—around 40-50%—limit convective heating. Upcoming hourly model updates from IMD could shift odds if cloud cover dissipates unexpectedly.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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