Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive trader consensus toward Austin's March 24 high temperature clustering in the upper 80s to low 90s, with 86-91°F bins each at 20.5% implied probability amid a high-pressure ridge over Texas promoting clear skies and peak heating. This setup contrasts with March's climatological average high of 77°F, fueled by warm southerly flow and low soil moisture enhancing daytime warming. Differentiating factors include model spread on boundary layer mixing and potential dryline-induced convection: lower-end 86-87°F odds reflect slight instability risks capping peaks, while 90-91°F gains from drier, sunnier outcomes in recent 00Z runs. Traders eye afternoon updates for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
86-87°F 21%
88-89°F 21%
90-91°F 21%
84-85°F 19%
79°F or below
9%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
19%
86-87°F
21%
88-89°F
21%
90-91°F
21%
92-93°F
19%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
9%
86-87°F 21%
88-89°F 21%
90-91°F 21%
84-85°F 19%
79°F or below
9%
80-81°F
11%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
19%
86-87°F
21%
88-89°F
21%
90-91°F
21%
92-93°F
19%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 20, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive trader consensus toward Austin's March 24 high temperature clustering in the upper 80s to low 90s, with 86-91°F bins each at 20.5% implied probability amid a high-pressure ridge over Texas promoting clear skies and peak heating. This setup contrasts with March's climatological average high of 77°F, fueled by warm southerly flow and low soil moisture enhancing daytime warming. Differentiating factors include model spread on boundary layer mixing and potential dryline-induced convection: lower-end 86-87°F odds reflect slight instability risks capping peaks, while 90-91°F gains from drier, sunnier outcomes in recent 00Z runs. Traders eye afternoon updates for resolution shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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