Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature near 15°C for Istanbul on April 6, with 15°C (31.5%) narrowly leading closely bunched 14–17°C outcomes (23–21.5%), underscoring short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Primary differentiators include the precise timing of a weak upper-level trough over the eastern Mediterranean, which could suppress daytime heating via cloud cover or light precipitation versus clearer skies allowing peaks closer to 17°C; Black Sea-influenced cool northerly flows and Marmara Sea moderation keep outcomes anchored to seasonal norms of 14–16°C early April highs. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance aligns with this range, but new 12z model runs and hourly updates through April 5 may resolve discrepancies ahead of measurement at official stations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4月6日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
4月6日のイスタンブールの最高気温は？
15°C 32%
14℃ 26%
16°C 23%
17℃ 22%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
11°C以下
1%
12℃
<1%
13°C
2%
14℃
24%
15°C
32%
16°C
23%
17℃
22%
18°C
9%
19°C
5%
20℃
1%
21℃以上
2%
15°C 32%
14℃ 26%
16°C 23%
17℃ 22%
新規
新規
2026/04/06
11°C以下
$490 Vol.
1%
12℃
$2,207 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$117 Vol.
2%
14℃
$103 Vol.
24%
15°C
$144 Vol.
32%
16°C
$120 Vol.
23%
17℃
$125 Vol.
22%
18°C
$81 Vol.
9%
19°C
$76 Vol.
5%
20℃
$94 Vol.
1%
21℃以上
$105 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature near 15°C for Istanbul on April 6, with 15°C (31.5%) narrowly leading closely bunched 14–17°C outcomes (23–21.5%), underscoring short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Primary differentiators include the precise timing of a weak upper-level trough over the eastern Mediterranean, which could suppress daytime heating via cloud cover or light precipitation versus clearer skies allowing peaks closer to 17°C; Black Sea-influenced cool northerly flows and Marmara Sea moderation keep outcomes anchored to seasonal norms of 14–16°C early April highs. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance aligns with this range, but new 12z model runs and hourly updates through April 5 may resolve discrepancies ahead of measurement at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ET
音量
$3,656終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature near 15°C for Istanbul on April 6, with 15°C (31.5%) narrowly leading closely bunched 14–17°C outcomes (23–21.5%), underscoring short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Primary differentiators include the precise timing of a weak upper-level trough over the eastern Mediterranean, which could suppress daytime heating via cloud cover or light precipitation versus clearer skies allowing peaks closer to 17°C; Black Sea-influenced cool northerly flows and Marmara Sea moderation keep outcomes anchored to seasonal norms of 14–16°C early April highs. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance aligns with this range, but new 12z model runs and hourly updates through April 5 may resolve discrepancies ahead of measurement at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$3,656終了日
2026/04/06マーケット開始日
Apr 2, 2026, 6:04 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature near 15°C for Istanbul on April 6, with 15°C (31.5%) narrowly leading closely bunched 14–17°C outcomes (23–21.5%), underscoring short-range forecast uncertainty from divergent ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads. Primary differentiators include the precise timing of a weak upper-level trough over the eastern Mediterranean, which could suppress daytime heating via cloud cover or light precipitation versus clearer skies allowing peaks closer to 17°C; Black Sea-influenced cool northerly flows and Marmara Sea moderation keep outcomes anchored to seasonal norms of 14–16°C early April highs. Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance aligns with this range, but new 12z model runs and hourly updates through April 5 may resolve discrepancies ahead of measurement at official stations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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