Persistent Houthi threats in the Red Sea, amplified by their entry into the Iran-Israel conflict with recent missile and drone strikes on Israel, have deterred major container lines from resuming Suez Canal transits despite tentative returns by Maersk and CMA CGM in late December 2025 and January 2026. Q1 2026 saw fewer than 300 container ship passages—well below the 1,000 threshold in a related market—amid rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, with carriers halting plans after March Middle East strikes. Suez Canal Authority data confirms January's 86 transits and ongoing declines, reflecting trader consensus on sustained geopolitical risks barring a surge to 2,000+ in H1 2026 unless a major de-escalation occurs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2026年上半期のスエズ運河の2 k以上のコンテナ船の通過？
2026年上半期のスエズ運河の2 k以上のコンテナ船の通過？
はい
$129,587 Vol.
$129,587 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$129,587 Vol.
$129,587 Vol.
2026/06/30
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.Persistent Houthi threats in the Red Sea, amplified by their entry into the Iran-Israel conflict with recent missile and drone strikes on Israel, have deterred major container lines from resuming Suez Canal transits despite tentative returns by Maersk and CMA CGM in late December 2025 and January 2026. Q1 2026 saw fewer than 300 container ship passages—well below the 1,000 threshold in a related market—amid rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, with carriers halting plans after March Middle East strikes. Suez Canal Authority data confirms January's 86 transits and ongoing declines, reflecting trader consensus on sustained geopolitical risks barring a surge to 2,000+ in H1 2026 unless a major de-escalation occurs.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
マーケット開始日： Nov 25, 2025, 4:59 PM ET
音量
$129,587終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Nov 25, 2025, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.Persistent Houthi threats in the Red Sea, amplified by their entry into the Iran-Israel conflict with recent missile and drone strikes on Israel, have deterred major container lines from resuming Suez Canal transits despite tentative returns by Maersk and CMA CGM in late December 2025 and January 2026. Q1 2026 saw fewer than 300 container ship passages—well below the 1,000 threshold in a related market—amid rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, with carriers halting plans after March Middle East strikes. Suez Canal Authority data confirms January's 86 transits and ongoing declines, reflecting trader consensus on sustained geopolitical risks barring a surge to 2,000+ in H1 2026 unless a major de-escalation occurs.
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits for the full year of 2023, or about 2,923 container ship transits per half-year. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 874 container ship transits of the canal per half-year in 2024.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 2000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first two quarters of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” reports for Q1 & Q2 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first and second quarters of 2026, or for the first half of 2026, by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through June 30, 2026.
音量
$129,587終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Nov 25, 2025, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent Houthi threats in the Red Sea, amplified by their entry into the Iran-Israel conflict with recent missile and drone strikes on Israel, have deterred major container lines from resuming Suez Canal transits despite tentative returns by Maersk and CMA CGM in late December 2025 and January 2026. Q1 2026 saw fewer than 300 container ship passages—well below the 1,000 threshold in a related market—amid rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, with carriers halting plans after March Middle East strikes. Suez Canal Authority data confirms January's 86 transits and ongoing declines, reflecting trader consensus on sustained geopolitical risks barring a surge to 2,000+ in H1 2026 unless a major de-escalation occurs.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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