Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites on October 26 marked the latest direct escalation in the shadow war between the two nations, following Iran's October 1 barrage of over 180 ballistic missiles in retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh. Tehran downplayed the damage and vowed a measured response, prioritizing de-escalation amid U.S. election uncertainties on November 5 and fragile ceasefire talks in Gaza and southern Lebanon involving Hezbollah proxies. No imminent Iranian strike is signaled, but risks persist from Houthi Red Sea disruptions, potential Israeli preemption, or post-election U.S. policy shifts on sanctions and alliances, all influencing trader assessments of action by March 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$2,977,987 Vol.
Mar 7, 2026
UAE
93%
Jordan
86%
Iraq
85%
Bahrain
67%
Oman
9%
Syrie
7%
Royaume-Uni
4%
Azerbaijan
3%
Turquie
3%
Chypre
3%
Armenia
2%
Pakistan
2%
Yémen
2%
Germany
2%
Hungary
1%
France
1%
Ukraine
1%
Georgia
1%
Italy
1%
Afghanistan
1%
Inde
1%
Poland
<1%
Spain
<1%
$2,977,987 Vol.
UAE
$34,888 Vol.
93%
Jordan
$24,927 Vol.
86%
Iraq
$19,624 Vol.
85%
Bahrain
$26,177 Vol.
67%
Oman
$38,832 Vol.
9%
Syrie
$71,011 Vol.
7%
Royaume-Uni
$37,909 Vol.
4%
Azerbaijan
$17,699 Vol.
3%
Turquie
$487,430 Vol.
3%
Chypre
$1,282,147 Vol.
3%
Armenia
$852 Vol.
2%
Pakistan
$52,958 Vol.
2%
Yémen
$16,600 Vol.
2%
Germany
$2,950 Vol.
2%
Hungary
$0 Vol.
1%
France
$1,932 Vol.
1%
Ukraine
$2,765 Vol.
1%
Georgia
$0 Vol.
1%
Italy
$1,400 Vol.
1%
Afghanistan
$46,012 Vol.
1%
Inde
$74,300 Vol.
1%
Poland
$280,994 Vol.
<1%
Spain
$87,322 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites on October 26 marked the latest direct escalation in the shadow war between the two nations, following Iran's October 1 barrage of over 180 ballistic missiles in retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh. Tehran downplayed the damage and vowed a measured response, prioritizing de-escalation amid U.S. election uncertainties on November 5 and fragile ceasefire talks in Gaza and southern Lebanon involving Hezbollah proxies. No imminent Iranian strike is signaled, but risks persist from Houthi Red Sea disruptions, potential Israeli preemption, or post-election U.S. policy shifts on sanctions and alliances, all influencing trader assessments of action by March 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 17, 2026, 1:16 PM ET
Volume
$2,977,987Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 1:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on a listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of a listed country between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET(ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites on October 26 marked the latest direct escalation in the shadow war between the two nations, following Iran's October 1 barrage of over 180 ballistic missiles in retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh. Tehran downplayed the damage and vowed a measured response, prioritizing de-escalation amid U.S. election uncertainties on November 5 and fragile ceasefire talks in Gaza and southern Lebanon involving Hezbollah proxies. No imminent Iranian strike is signaled, but risks persist from Houthi Red Sea disruptions, potential Israeli preemption, or post-election U.S. policy shifts on sanctions and alliances, all influencing trader assessments of action by March 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$2,977,987Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 17, 2026, 1:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel's targeted airstrikes on Iranian missile production and air defense sites on October 26 marked the latest direct escalation in the shadow war between the two nations, following Iran's October 1 barrage of over 180 ballistic missiles in retaliation for assassinations of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh. Tehran downplayed the damage and vowed a measured response, prioritizing de-escalation amid U.S. election uncertainties on November 5 and fragile ceasefire talks in Gaza and southern Lebanon involving Hezbollah proxies. No imminent Iranian strike is signaled, but risks persist from Houthi Red Sea disruptions, potential Israeli preemption, or post-election U.S. policy shifts on sanctions and alliances, all influencing trader assessments of action by March 31.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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