Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Google as the frontrunner at 54% implied probability to own the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Elo rankings, driven by Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's current third-place hold at 1493 Elo—trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants (1504 and 1500). Recent March releases, including xAI's Grok 4.20 beta (1491 Elo, fourth) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 high (1484, sixth), have intensified competition but failed to dislodge Google, reflecting DeepMind's steady multimodal reasoning gains from February's Gemini 3.1 Pro launch. Anthropic trails at 37.5%, buoyed by leaderboard dominance yet tempered by no confirmed April upgrades post-Claude 4.6; upcoming Google I/O in May looms as a potential catalyst for shifts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds edge in tracking rapid AI capability evolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourGoogle 54%
Anthropic 38%
OpenAI 3.1%
DeepSeek 1.8%
$74,005 Vol.
$74,005 Vol.

54%

Anthropic
38%

OpenAI
3%

DeepSeek
2%

Mistral
2%

Baidu
2%

xAI
1%

ByteDance
1%

Z.ai
1%

Amazon
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Google 54%
Anthropic 38%
OpenAI 3.1%
DeepSeek 1.8%
$74,005 Vol.
$74,005 Vol.

54%

Anthropic
38%

OpenAI
3%

DeepSeek
2%

Mistral
2%

Baidu
2%

xAI
1%

ByteDance
1%

Z.ai
1%

Amazon
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Meituan
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 4:21 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Google as the frontrunner at 54% implied probability to own the third-best AI model by April 30, 2026, per the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard's Elo rankings, driven by Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's current third-place hold at 1493 Elo—trailing only Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 variants (1504 and 1500). Recent March releases, including xAI's Grok 4.20 beta (1491 Elo, fourth) and OpenAI's GPT-5.4 high (1484, sixth), have intensified competition but failed to dislodge Google, reflecting DeepMind's steady multimodal reasoning gains from February's Gemini 3.1 Pro launch. Anthropic trails at 37.5%, buoyed by leaderboard dominance yet tempered by no confirmed April upgrades post-Claude 4.6; upcoming Google I/O in May looms as a potential catalyst for shifts, underscoring prediction markets' wisdom-of-crowds edge in tracking rapid AI capability evolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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