Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has dominated the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard since its February 2026 launch, securing the top two spots with scores of 1504 and 1500 Elo—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1494—driving trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for end-of-April supremacy. This positioning stems from sustained benchmark leadership across text, coding, and professional tasks, bolstered by Anthropic's rapid 2026 release cadence including Sonnet 4.6, expanded context windows, and developer tools like Claude Code. With resolution imminent on April 30 via LMArena's overall tab, challengers like Google or OpenAI would need a surprise large language model drop and rapid battle wins to overtake, though leaderboard volatility from ongoing crowdsourced evaluations leaves slim room for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAnthropic 94%
Google 3.5%
OpenAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$3,174,774 Vol.
$3,174,774 Vol.

Anthropic
94%

3%

OpenAI
1%

DeepSeek
1%

xAI
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

ByteDance
<1%
Anthropic 94%
Google 3.5%
OpenAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
$3,174,774 Vol.
$3,174,774 Vol.

Anthropic
94%

3%

OpenAI
1%

DeepSeek
1%

xAI
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Mistral
<1%

ByteDance
<1%
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 has dominated the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard since its February 2026 launch, securing the top two spots with scores of 1504 and 1500 Elo—well ahead of Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1494—driving trader consensus to a 93.5% implied probability for end-of-April supremacy. This positioning stems from sustained benchmark leadership across text, coding, and professional tasks, bolstered by Anthropic's rapid 2026 release cadence including Sonnet 4.6, expanded context windows, and developer tools like Claude Code. With resolution imminent on April 30 via LMArena's overall tab, challengers like Google or OpenAI would need a surprise large language model drop and rapid battle wins to overtake, though leaderboard volatility from ongoing crowdsourced evaluations leaves slim room for shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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