Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, propelled WTI crude oil (CL) futures sharply higher, driving the March 2026 contract to settle at approximately $102 per barrel on March 31 amid supply fears and a $20/bbl surge since late February hostilities. This overwhelming trader consensus—100% implied probability on $90+—reflects skin-in-the-game positioning backed by heightened risk premiums, outpacing OPEC+'s modest 206,000 b/d output hike for April. While resolution appears certain, a surprise de-escalation or rapid SPR releases could theoretically pressure prices lower, though current momentum favors sustained elevated levels ahead of April EIA inventory data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour90 $+ 100.0%
<60 $ <1%
60 $ - 65 $ <1%
65 $ - 70 $ <1%
$1,491,410 Vol.
$1,491,410 Vol.
31 mars 2026
<60 $
Non
60 $ - 65 $
Non
65 $ - 70 $
Non
70 $ - 75 $
Non
75-80 $
Non
80 $ - 85 $
Non
85$-90$
Non
90 $+
Oui
90 $+ 100.0%
<60 $ <1%
60 $ - 65 $ <1%
65 $ - 70 $ <1%
$1,491,410 Vol.
$1,491,410 Vol.
31 mars 2026
<60 $
$109,420 Vol.
Non
60 $ - 65 $
$117,658 Vol.
Non
65 $ - 70 $
$223,314 Vol.
Non
70 $ - 75 $
$80,068 Vol.
Non
75-80 $
$278,253 Vol.
Non
80 $ - 85 $
$187,759 Vol.
Non
85$-90$
$228,243 Vol.
Non
90 $+
$266,696 Vol.
Oui
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, propelled WTI crude oil (CL) futures sharply higher, driving the March 2026 contract to settle at approximately $102 per barrel on March 31 amid supply fears and a $20/bbl surge since late February hostilities. This overwhelming trader consensus—100% implied probability on $90+—reflects skin-in-the-game positioning backed by heightened risk premiums, outpacing OPEC+'s modest 206,000 b/d output hike for April. While resolution appears certain, a surprise de-escalation or rapid SPR releases could theoretically pressure prices lower, though current momentum favors sustained elevated levels ahead of April EIA inventory data.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Volume
$1,491,410Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, propelled WTI crude oil (CL) futures sharply higher, driving the March 2026 contract to settle at approximately $102 per barrel on March 31 amid supply fears and a $20/bbl surge since late February hostilities. This overwhelming trader consensus—100% implied probability on $90+—reflects skin-in-the-game positioning backed by heightened risk premiums, outpacing OPEC+'s modest 206,000 b/d output hike for April. While resolution appears certain, a surprise de-escalation or rapid SPR releases could theoretically pressure prices lower, though current momentum favors sustained elevated levels ahead of April EIA inventory data.
This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Volume
$1,491,410Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, propelled WTI crude oil (CL) futures sharply higher, driving the March 2026 contract to settle at approximately $102 per barrel on March 31 amid supply fears and a $20/bbl surge since late February hostilities. This overwhelming trader consensus—100% implied probability on $90+—reflects skin-in-the-game positioning backed by heightened risk premiums, outpacing OPEC+'s modest 206,000 b/d output hike for April. While resolution appears certain, a surprise de-escalation or rapid SPR releases could theoretically pressure prices lower, though current momentum favors sustained elevated levels ahead of April EIA inventory data.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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