Trader consensus heavily favors Delcy Rodríguez at 61.5% as Venezuela's leader by end of 2026, driven by her role as vice president and key Chavista loyalist amid Nicolás Maduro's firm institutional control following the disputed 2024 election upheld by the Supreme Court. Maduro holds 15.7%, reflecting potential for extended rule despite term limits and international non-recognition by the US and allies. Opposition figures like María Corina Machado (13.5%) and Edmundo González (1.8%) trail due to barring from office, exile, and post-election crackdowns, including arrests of dissidents. Recent Maduro government purges and economic sanctions reinforce regime stability, diminishing prospects for leadership change absent major unrest or diplomatic shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLeader vénézuélien fin 2026 ?
Leader vénézuélien fin 2026 ?
Delcy Rodríguez 62%
Nicolás Maduro 15.7%
María Corina Machado 14%
Edmundo González 1.7%
$75,847,481 Vol.
$75,847,481 Vol.
Delcy Rodríguez
62%
Nicolás Maduro
16%
María Corina Machado
14%
Edmundo González
2%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
2%
Pas de chef d'État
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Donald Trump
1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Delcy Rodríguez 62%
Nicolás Maduro 15.7%
María Corina Machado 14%
Edmundo González 1.7%
$75,847,481 Vol.
$75,847,481 Vol.
Delcy Rodríguez
62%
Nicolás Maduro
16%
María Corina Machado
14%
Edmundo González
2%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
2%
Pas de chef d'État
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Donald Trump
1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Marché ouvert : Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors Delcy Rodríguez at 61.5% as Venezuela's leader by end of 2026, driven by her role as vice president and key Chavista loyalist amid Nicolás Maduro's firm institutional control following the disputed 2024 election upheld by the Supreme Court. Maduro holds 15.7%, reflecting potential for extended rule despite term limits and international non-recognition by the US and allies. Opposition figures like María Corina Machado (13.5%) and Edmundo González (1.8%) trail due to barring from office, exile, and post-election crackdowns, including arrests of dissidents. Recent Maduro government purges and economic sanctions reinforce regime stability, diminishing prospects for leadership change absent major unrest or diplomatic shifts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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