Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, targeting missile production facilities in response to Tehran's prior attacks, have kept US-Iran tensions elevated without sparking direct confrontation, as the Biden administration endorsed Israel's limited operation while calling for restraint to avoid broader escalation. No verifiable diplomatic initiatives for a US-Iran ceasefire are underway, amid stalled nuclear talks and Iran's continued backing of proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a potential pivot for foreign policy shifts, with candidates outlining divergent approaches to Iran sanctions and regional deterrence; traders monitor for any Tehran-Washington signals amid this proxy conflict stalemate.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourUS x Iran cessez-le-feu d'ici le... ?
US x Iran cessez-le-feu d'ici le... ?
$54,748,064 Vol.
31 mars
3%
7 avril
13%
15 avril
24%
30 avril
40%
31 mai
53%
30 juin
61%
31 décembre
76%
$54,748,064 Vol.
31 mars
$34,481,253 Vol.
3%
7 avril
$746,090 Vol.
13%
15 avril
$5,247,059 Vol.
24%
30 avril
$6,010,380 Vol.
40%
31 mai
$2,123,417 Vol.
53%
30 juin
$2,209,429 Vol.
61%
31 décembre
$448,332 Vol.
76%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, targeting missile production facilities in response to Tehran's prior attacks, have kept US-Iran tensions elevated without sparking direct confrontation, as the Biden administration endorsed Israel's limited operation while calling for restraint to avoid broader escalation. No verifiable diplomatic initiatives for a US-Iran ceasefire are underway, amid stalled nuclear talks and Iran's continued backing of proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a potential pivot for foreign policy shifts, with candidates outlining divergent approaches to Iran sanctions and regional deterrence; traders monitor for any Tehran-Washington signals amid this proxy conflict stalemate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET
Volume
$54,748,064Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, targeting missile production facilities in response to Tehran's prior attacks, have kept US-Iran tensions elevated without sparking direct confrontation, as the Biden administration endorsed Israel's limited operation while calling for restraint to avoid broader escalation. No verifiable diplomatic initiatives for a US-Iran ceasefire are underway, amid stalled nuclear talks and Iran's continued backing of proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a potential pivot for foreign policy shifts, with candidates outlining divergent approaches to Iran sanctions and regional deterrence; traders monitor for any Tehran-Washington signals amid this proxy conflict stalemate.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$54,748,064Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military sites on October 26, targeting missile production facilities in response to Tehran's prior attacks, have kept US-Iran tensions elevated without sparking direct confrontation, as the Biden administration endorsed Israel's limited operation while calling for restraint to avoid broader escalation. No verifiable diplomatic initiatives for a US-Iran ceasefire are underway, amid stalled nuclear talks and Iran's continued backing of proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis disrupting Red Sea shipping. The November 5 US presidential election looms as a potential pivot for foreign policy shifts, with candidates outlining divergent approaches to Iran sanctions and regional deterrence; traders monitor for any Tehran-Washington signals amid this proxy conflict stalemate.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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