U.S. airstrikes on Isfahan on April 2 highlight persistent military escalation in the war that began February 28, 2026, following Iran's rejection of a U.S.-set 60-day negotiation deadline, driving trader skepticism on near-term ceasefires despite intermittent diplomatic signals. President Trump stated April 1 that Iran's president sought a truce—contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage—but Tehran dismissed this as false, vowing retaliation while denying direct talks beyond indirect channels. The U.S. 15-point plan from March 24 seeks a mutual halt in direct engagement, yet threats of infrastructure strikes and potential ground operations on sites like Kharg Island sustain uncertainty. Key resolution hinges on public confirmation from both governments of an official ceasefire agreement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourUS x Iran cessez-le-feu d'ici le... ?
US x Iran cessez-le-feu d'ici le... ?
$83,824,709 Vol.
7 avr. 2026
7 avril
2%
15 avril
7%
30 avril
21%
31 mai
40%
30 juin
56%
31 décembre
71%
$83,824,709 Vol.
7 avril
$7,365,963 Vol.
2%
15 avril
$11,716,840 Vol.
7%
30 avril
$9,761,965 Vol.
21%
31 mai
$3,291,410 Vol.
40%
30 juin
$2,886,783 Vol.
56%
31 décembre
$951,988 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.U.S. airstrikes on Isfahan on April 2 highlight persistent military escalation in the war that began February 28, 2026, following Iran's rejection of a U.S.-set 60-day negotiation deadline, driving trader skepticism on near-term ceasefires despite intermittent diplomatic signals. President Trump stated April 1 that Iran's president sought a truce—contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage—but Tehran dismissed this as false, vowing retaliation while denying direct talks beyond indirect channels. The U.S. 15-point plan from March 24 seeks a mutual halt in direct engagement, yet threats of infrastructure strikes and potential ground operations on sites like Kharg Island sustain uncertainty. Key resolution hinges on public confirmation from both governments of an official ceasefire agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Volume
$83,824,709Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.U.S. airstrikes on Isfahan on April 2 highlight persistent military escalation in the war that began February 28, 2026, following Iran's rejection of a U.S.-set 60-day negotiation deadline, driving trader skepticism on near-term ceasefires despite intermittent diplomatic signals. President Trump stated April 1 that Iran's president sought a truce—contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage—but Tehran dismissed this as false, vowing retaliation while denying direct talks beyond indirect channels. The U.S. 15-point plan from March 24 seeks a mutual halt in direct engagement, yet threats of infrastructure strikes and potential ground operations on sites like Kharg Island sustain uncertainty. Key resolution hinges on public confirmation from both governments of an official ceasefire agreement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
For the purposes of this market, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran. However, an overwhelming consensus of credible media reporting confirming that an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$83,824,709Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. airstrikes on Isfahan on April 2 highlight persistent military escalation in the war that began February 28, 2026, following Iran's rejection of a U.S.-set 60-day negotiation deadline, driving trader skepticism on near-term ceasefires despite intermittent diplomatic signals. President Trump stated April 1 that Iran's president sought a truce—contingent on reopening the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage—but Tehran dismissed this as false, vowing retaliation while denying direct talks beyond indirect channels. The U.S. 15-point plan from March 24 seeks a mutual halt in direct engagement, yet threats of infrastructure strikes and potential ground operations on sites like Kharg Island sustain uncertainty. Key resolution hinges on public confirmation from both governments of an official ceasefire agreement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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