Market icon

Les États-Unis frappent l'Iran par... ?

$156,314,662 Vol.

Feb 3, 2026

Règles

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").

Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.

Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$156,314,662
Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026
Créé le
Jan 29, 2026, 5:19 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Market icon

Les États-Unis frappent l'Iran par... ?

$156,314,662 Vol.

2 février

$3,295,561 Vol.

<1%

3 février

$900,725 Vol.

1%

4 février

$437,694 Vol.

1%

5 février

$587,612 Vol.

2%

6 février

$3,157,827 Vol.

3%

13 février

$2,169,771 Vol.

10%

20 février

$3,210 Vol.

17%

28 février

$6,161,532 Vol.

24%

31 mars

$5,046,810 Vol.

37%

30 juin

$2,841,045 Vol.

51%

À propos

Volume
$156,314,662
Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026
Créé le
Jan 29, 2026, 5:19 PM ET

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.