US forces conducted a major military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes on Caracas infrastructure and capturing President Nicolás Maduro in a precision raid, prompting a transition overseen by interim authorities with US involvement in oil assets. No subsequent ground entries have occurred as of April 1, amid official denials of plans for additional troop deployments and the US Embassy's resumption of operations in Caracas on March 31, signaling diplomatic normalization. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation, with focus shifting to stabilizing Venezuelan crude production—recently ramped up for export—and managing refugee flows via Colombian border support, reducing near-term incentives for re-intervention absent new escalations like proxy threats or regime remnants. Upcoming oil output milestones and transition timelines could influence dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$1,257,044 Vol.
31 janv. 2026
31 mars
1%
30 juin
14%
$1,257,044 Vol.
31 mars
$3,486 Vol.
1%
30 juin
$173,469 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US forces conducted a major military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes on Caracas infrastructure and capturing President Nicolás Maduro in a precision raid, prompting a transition overseen by interim authorities with US involvement in oil assets. No subsequent ground entries have occurred as of April 1, amid official denials of plans for additional troop deployments and the US Embassy's resumption of operations in Caracas on March 31, signaling diplomatic normalization. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation, with focus shifting to stabilizing Venezuelan crude production—recently ramped up for export—and managing refugee flows via Colombian border support, reducing near-term incentives for re-intervention absent new escalations like proxy threats or regime remnants. Upcoming oil output milestones and transition timelines could influence dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 19, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$1,257,044Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 19, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US forces conducted a major military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes on Caracas infrastructure and capturing President Nicolás Maduro in a precision raid, prompting a transition overseen by interim authorities with US involvement in oil assets. No subsequent ground entries have occurred as of April 1, amid official denials of plans for additional troop deployments and the US Embassy's resumption of operations in Caracas on March 31, signaling diplomatic normalization. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation, with focus shifting to stabilizing Venezuelan crude production—recently ramped up for export—and managing refugee flows via Colombian border support, reducing near-term incentives for re-intervention absent new escalations like proxy threats or regime remnants. Upcoming oil output milestones and transition timelines could influence dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count.
US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count.
Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,257,044Date de fin
30 juin 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 19, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US forces conducted a major military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, launching airstrikes on Caracas infrastructure and capturing President Nicolás Maduro in a precision raid, prompting a transition overseen by interim authorities with US involvement in oil assets. No subsequent ground entries have occurred as of April 1, amid official denials of plans for additional troop deployments and the US Embassy's resumption of operations in Caracas on March 31, signaling diplomatic normalization. Trader consensus reflects de-escalation, with focus shifting to stabilizing Venezuelan crude production—recently ramped up for export—and managing refugee flows via Colombian border support, reducing near-term incentives for re-intervention absent new escalations like proxy threats or regime remnants. Upcoming oil output milestones and transition timelines could influence dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes