Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion (94% implied probability), propelled by reports this week of an imminent S-1 filing targeting a June 2026 listing at $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation and a record $75 billion raise. Surging Starlink subscriber growth to millions, with over 9,500 satellites deployed, alongside Starship reusability milestones and private tender offers valuing the company at $1.4 trillion in February, underpin this positioning amid booming demand for satellite broadband and space-based AI data centers. Key catalysts include the filing deadline this week and governance tweaks for Musk's control. Realistic challenges—Starship test failures, regulatory delays from FAA, or volatile equity markets—could push timelines past 2028 or compress valuation below $1 trillion.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour1T+ 94%
Pas d'introduction en bourse avant 2028 3.7%
900B–1T <1%
600 Md$–700 Md$ <1%
$2,923,113 Vol.
$2,923,113 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
<500B
<1%
500 Md$–600 Md$
<1%
600 Md$–700 Md$
<1%
700 Md–800 Md
<1%
800 milliards–900 milliards
<1%
900B–1T
1%
1T+
94%
Pas d'introduction en bourse avant 2028
4%
1T+ 94%
Pas d'introduction en bourse avant 2028 3.7%
900B–1T <1%
600 Md$–700 Md$ <1%
$2,923,113 Vol.
$2,923,113 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
<500B
$326,424 Vol.
<1%
500 Md$–600 Md$
$265,131 Vol.
<1%
600 Md$–700 Md$
$242,061 Vol.
<1%
700 Md–800 Md
$266,619 Vol.
<1%
800 milliards–900 milliards
$436,210 Vol.
<1%
900B–1T
$360,124 Vol.
1%
1T+
$518,265 Vol.
94%
Pas d'introduction en bourse avant 2028
$508,279 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion (94% implied probability), propelled by reports this week of an imminent S-1 filing targeting a June 2026 listing at $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation and a record $75 billion raise. Surging Starlink subscriber growth to millions, with over 9,500 satellites deployed, alongside Starship reusability milestones and private tender offers valuing the company at $1.4 trillion in February, underpin this positioning amid booming demand for satellite broadband and space-based AI data centers. Key catalysts include the filing deadline this week and governance tweaks for Musk's control. Realistic challenges—Starship test failures, regulatory delays from FAA, or volatile equity markets—could push timelines past 2028 or compress valuation below $1 trillion.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ET
Volume
$2,923,113Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion (94% implied probability), propelled by reports this week of an imminent S-1 filing targeting a June 2026 listing at $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation and a record $75 billion raise. Surging Starlink subscriber growth to millions, with over 9,500 satellites deployed, alongside Starship reusability milestones and private tender offers valuing the company at $1.4 trillion in February, underpin this positioning amid booming demand for satellite broadband and space-based AI data centers. Key catalysts include the filing deadline this week and governance tweaks for Musk's control. Realistic challenges—Starship test failures, regulatory delays from FAA, or volatile equity markets—could push timelines past 2028 or compress valuation below $1 trillion.
This market will resolve based on SpaceX's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no SpaceX IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$2,923,113Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Dec 5, 2025, 8:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a SpaceX IPO closing market cap exceeding $1 trillion (94% implied probability), propelled by reports this week of an imminent S-1 filing targeting a June 2026 listing at $1.5–1.75 trillion valuation and a record $75 billion raise. Surging Starlink subscriber growth to millions, with over 9,500 satellites deployed, alongside Starship reusability milestones and private tender offers valuing the company at $1.4 trillion in February, underpin this positioning amid booming demand for satellite broadband and space-based AI data centers. Key catalysts include the filing deadline this week and governance tweaks for Musk's control. Realistic challenges—Starship test failures, regulatory delays from FAA, or volatile equity markets—could push timelines past 2028 or compress valuation below $1 trillion.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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