QatarEnergy's March 2, 2026, suspension of all LNG production at its Ras Laffan complex—triggered by Iranian drone and missile strikes amid escalating US-Israeli-Iran tensions—has entrenched trader consensus at 94.5% odds against any resumption announcement by April 30. CEO Saad al-Kaabi reported extensive damage to liquefaction trains, estimating repairs could take up to five years, with force majeure declared on contracts affecting 17% of global supply. No repair work or restarts have commenced, North Field expansion projects are halted or delayed beyond 2027, and recent Fitch rating watch negative underscores prolonged disruptions, leaving little room for near-term recovery despite US Golden Pass LNG startup providing unrelated offset. Late-breaking diplomatic de-escalation remains a slim outlier risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$30,182 Vol.
$30,182 Vol.
$30,182 Vol.
$30,182 Vol.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if QatarEnergy resumes production of liquefied natural gas at QatarEnergy LNG production facilities in Qatar, or officially announces that such production has resumed or will resume, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
QatarEnergy resuming the production of other halted products, including downstream LNG-related products, or resuming transportation of LNG without resuming production, will not alone count.
An official announcement that LNG production will resume at QatarEnergy LNG production facilities in Qatar must signal the end of the total LNG production halt effective immediately or on a specific date or clearly defined time window. Mere statements that production will resume at some undefined point in the future, or that production will resume once the halt has ended, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from QatarEnergy (https://www.qatarenergy.qa/en/Pages/vHome.aspx); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Apr 1, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if QatarEnergy resumes production of liquefied natural gas at QatarEnergy LNG production facilities in Qatar, or officially announces that such production has resumed or will resume, by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
QatarEnergy resuming the production of other halted products, including downstream LNG-related products, or resuming transportation of LNG without resuming production, will not alone count.
An official announcement that LNG production will resume at QatarEnergy LNG production facilities in Qatar must signal the end of the total LNG production halt effective immediately or on a specific date or clearly defined time window. Mere statements that production will resume at some undefined point in the future, or that production will resume once the halt has ended, will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from QatarEnergy (https://www.qatarenergy.qa/en/Pages/vHome.aspx); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...QatarEnergy's March 2, 2026, suspension of all LNG production at its Ras Laffan complex—triggered by Iranian drone and missile strikes amid escalating US-Israeli-Iran tensions—has entrenched trader consensus at 94.5% odds against any resumption announcement by April 30. CEO Saad al-Kaabi reported extensive damage to liquefaction trains, estimating repairs could take up to five years, with force majeure declared on contracts affecting 17% of global supply. No repair work or restarts have commenced, North Field expansion projects are halted or delayed beyond 2027, and recent Fitch rating watch negative underscores prolonged disruptions, leaving little room for near-term recovery despite US Golden Pass LNG startup providing unrelated offset. Late-breaking diplomatic de-escalation remains a slim outlier risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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