Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2-3 inches of precipitation in New York City for April 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, closely tracking Central Park's historical April average of 3.7 inches, with the adjacent 3-4 inch bin at 24%. NOAA Climate Prediction Center's spring outlook indicates equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation across the Northeast, reflecting limited influence from the recent transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, which typically introduce variability in regional rainfall without strong wet or dry signals. A dry start to the month—only 0.09 inches recorded on April 1—has tempered expectations for higher totals like >6 inches (21%), while dynamical model ensembles show no major storm systems through mid-April. Updated 6-10 day forecasts from the National Weather Service will further shape probabilities as the month progresses.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourPrecipitation in NYC in April?
Precipitation in NYC in April?
3-4" 29%
2-3" 26%
<2" 22.6%
4-5" 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 avr. 2026
<2"
23%
2-3"
37%
3-4"
24%
4-5"
15%
5-6"
4%
>15 cm
7%
3-4" 29%
2-3" 26%
<2" 22.6%
4-5" 15%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
30 avr. 2026
<2"
$268 Vol.
23%
2-3"
$276 Vol.
37%
3-4"
$2,138 Vol.
24%
4-5"
$185 Vol.
15%
5-6"
$123 Vol.
4%
>15 cm
$91 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2-3 inches of precipitation in New York City for April 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, closely tracking Central Park's historical April average of 3.7 inches, with the adjacent 3-4 inch bin at 24%. NOAA Climate Prediction Center's spring outlook indicates equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation across the Northeast, reflecting limited influence from the recent transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, which typically introduce variability in regional rainfall without strong wet or dry signals. A dry start to the month—only 0.09 inches recorded on April 1—has tempered expectations for higher totals like >6 inches (21%), while dynamical model ensembles show no major storm systems through mid-April. Updated 6-10 day forecasts from the National Weather Service will further shape probabilities as the month progresses.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$3,081Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2-3 inches of precipitation in New York City for April 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, closely tracking Central Park's historical April average of 3.7 inches, with the adjacent 3-4 inch bin at 24%. NOAA Climate Prediction Center's spring outlook indicates equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation across the Northeast, reflecting limited influence from the recent transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, which typically introduce variability in regional rainfall without strong wet or dry signals. A dry start to the month—only 0.09 inches recorded on April 1—has tempered expectations for higher totals like >6 inches (21%), while dynamical model ensembles show no major storm systems through mid-April. Updated 6-10 day forecasts from the National Weather Service will further shape probabilities as the month progresses.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Central Park, New York City between April 1 and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for April 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Central Park NY" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=okx link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of April 2026.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,081Date de fin
30 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 2-3 inches of precipitation in New York City for April 2026 at 36.5% implied probability, closely tracking Central Park's historical April average of 3.7 inches, with the adjacent 3-4 inch bin at 24%. NOAA Climate Prediction Center's spring outlook indicates equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal precipitation across the Northeast, reflecting limited influence from the recent transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions, which typically introduce variability in regional rainfall without strong wet or dry signals. A dry start to the month—only 0.09 inches recorded on April 1—has tempered expectations for higher totals like >6 inches (21%), while dynamical model ensembles show no major storm systems through mid-April. Updated 6-10 day forecasts from the National Weather Service will further shape probabilities as the month progresses.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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