Democratic nominee Andy Kim holds commanding double-digit leads in recent polls over Republican Curtis Bashaw for New Jersey's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by Bob Menendez's resignation amid his federal corruption conviction, driving trader consensus to imply 92.5% odds of a Democratic victory. New Jersey's deep-blue status, with no Republican Senate win since 1972, bolsters this positioning, as post-primary surveys from Emerson and others show Kim ahead by 15–20 points amid steady Democratic turnout expectations. With early voting underway ahead of the November 5 election, shifts would require a major Republican surge, late scandal hitting Kim, or anomalous GOP mobilization in this non-battleground state—scenarios traders view as low-probability given historical base rates and current polling averages.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Démocrate
93%
Républicain
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Démocrate
$0 Vol.
93%
Républicain
$0 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic nominee Andy Kim holds commanding double-digit leads in recent polls over Republican Curtis Bashaw for New Jersey's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by Bob Menendez's resignation amid his federal corruption conviction, driving trader consensus to imply 92.5% odds of a Democratic victory. New Jersey's deep-blue status, with no Republican Senate win since 1972, bolsters this positioning, as post-primary surveys from Emerson and others show Kim ahead by 15–20 points amid steady Democratic turnout expectations. With early voting underway ahead of the November 5 election, shifts would require a major Republican surge, late scandal hitting Kim, or anomalous GOP mobilization in this non-battleground state—scenarios traders view as low-probability given historical base rates and current polling averages.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Democratic nominee Andy Kim holds commanding double-digit leads in recent polls over Republican Curtis Bashaw for New Jersey's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by Bob Menendez's resignation amid his federal corruption conviction, driving trader consensus to imply 92.5% odds of a Democratic victory. New Jersey's deep-blue status, with no Republican Senate win since 1972, bolsters this positioning, as post-primary surveys from Emerson and others show Kim ahead by 15–20 points amid steady Democratic turnout expectations. With early voting underway ahead of the November 5 election, shifts would require a major Republican surge, late scandal hitting Kim, or anomalous GOP mobilization in this non-battleground state—scenarios traders view as low-probability given historical base rates and current polling averages.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm New Jersey U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:04 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic nominee Andy Kim holds commanding double-digit leads in recent polls over Republican Curtis Bashaw for New Jersey's open U.S. Senate seat, vacated by Bob Menendez's resignation amid his federal corruption conviction, driving trader consensus to imply 92.5% odds of a Democratic victory. New Jersey's deep-blue status, with no Republican Senate win since 1972, bolsters this positioning, as post-primary surveys from Emerson and others show Kim ahead by 15–20 points amid steady Democratic turnout expectations. With early voting underway ahead of the November 5 election, shifts would require a major Republican surge, late scandal hitting Kim, or anomalous GOP mobilization in this non-battleground state—scenarios traders view as low-probability given historical base rates and current polling averages.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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