Market icon
Élections·Primaires

Gagnants principaux CA-04

Market icon
Élections·Primaires

Gagnants principaux CA-04

$20,028 Vol.

2 juin 2026
Polymarket

$20,028 Vol.

Polymarket

Mike Thompson

$6,439 Vol.

96%

Eric Jones

$3,848 Vol.

95%

John Wesley Tyler

$554 Vol.

23%

Trevor Merrell

$6,262 Vol.

15%

Laurie MacKenzie

$629 Vol.

9%

Heath Fulkerson

$0 Vol.

8%

Sharon Brown

$1,588 Vol.

6%

Mandy Ghusar

$708 Vol.

6%

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and challenger Eric Jones (D) dominate trader consensus to advance from California's top-two primary on June 2 in the solidly Democratic 4th Congressional District (D+17 PVI after 2025 redistricting via Proposition 50), thanks to their superior fundraising—Jones raised $2.6 million and Thompson $2 million through late 2025, dwarfing the six underfunded Republicans' combined totals under $150,000. The certified candidate list released March 26 confirmed nine contenders, including independents, amid a fragmented GOP field prone to vote-splitting that has historically sent one Democrat and one Republican forward since 2016. The Democratic Party of California endorsed Thompson for his regional advocacy on wildfires and wine industry issues, while Our Revolution backed Jones's progressive push against corporate influence; no public polls yet, with early voting approaching in late May.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,028
Date de fin
2 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson (D) and challenger Eric Jones (D) dominate trader consensus to advance from California's top-two primary on June 2 in the solidly Democratic 4th Congressional District (D+17 PVI after 2025 redistricting via Proposition 50), thanks to their superior fundraising—Jones raised $2.6 million and Thompson $2 million through late 2025, dwarfing the six underfunded Republicans' combined totals under $150,000. The certified candidate list released March 26 confirmed nine contenders, including independents, amid a fragmented GOP field prone to vote-splitting that has historically sent one Democrat and one Republican forward since 2016. The Democratic Party of California endorsed Thompson for his regional advocacy on wildfires and wine industry issues, while Our Revolution backed Jones's progressive push against corporate influence; no public polls yet, with early voting approaching in late May.

This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026.

If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$20,028
Date de fin
2 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve according to the two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The California primary is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Gagnants principaux CA-04 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 8 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Mike Thompson » à 96%, suivi de « Eric Jones » à 95%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 96¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 96% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Gagnants principaux CA-04 » a généré $20K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Feb 26, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Gagnants principaux CA-04 », parcourez les 8 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Gagnants principaux CA-04 » est « Mike Thompson » à 96%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 96% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Eric Jones » à 95%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Gagnants principaux CA-04 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.