Incumbent Mike Thompson, a longtime moderate Democrat, holds a commanding position in California's June 2 top-two primary for the 4th congressional district after 28 years in office. A redrawn map and well-funded Democratic challenger Eric Jones have drawn the most attention and fundraising, while other Republicans and independents remain underfunded. Forecasters rate the seat solidly Democratic, limiting the impact of any Republican surge. The primary's structure means the two highest vote-getters advance regardless of party, with Thompson and Jones positioned as the clear frontrunners based on spending and name recognition. No major late developments have altered this dynamic in the final week before ballots.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$31,470 Vol.
Mike Thompson
96%
Eric Jones
92%
John Wesley Tyler
11%
Heath Fulkerson
5%
Laurie MacKenzie
5%
Trevor Merrell
3%
Sharon Brown
2%
Mandy Ghusar
<1%
$31,470 Vol.
Mike Thompson
96%
Eric Jones
92%
John Wesley Tyler
11%
Heath Fulkerson
5%
Laurie MacKenzie
5%
Trevor Merrell
3%
Sharon Brown
2%
Mandy Ghusar
<1%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Mike Thompson, a longtime moderate Democrat, holds a commanding position in California's June 2 top-two primary for the 4th congressional district after 28 years in office. A redrawn map and well-funded Democratic challenger Eric Jones have drawn the most attention and fundraising, while other Republicans and independents remain underfunded. Forecasters rate the seat solidly Democratic, limiting the impact of any Republican surge. The primary's structure means the two highest vote-getters advance regardless of party, with Thompson and Jones positioned as the clear frontrunners based on spending and name recognition. No major late developments have altered this dynamic in the final week before ballots.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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