Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson seeks renomination in California's 4th congressional district under the state's top-two primary system, where the two leading vote-getters advance regardless of party. Recent redistricting through Proposition 50 has shifted boundaries to strengthen Democratic performance in the solidly blue district. Thompson, a longtime moderate Democrat, faces his most notable primary challenger in Eric Jones, a venture capitalist backed by substantial fundraising and a multimillion-dollar voter mobilization group. Multiple Republican candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, are also on the ballot for the June 2, 2026, primary. Trader sentiment reflects the district's partisan lean and Thompson's incumbency advantages alongside Jones's organized support as the primary factors shaping advancement probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour$32,229 Vol.
Mike Thompson
96%
Eric Jones
92%
John Wesley Tyler
9%
Laurie MacKenzie
5%
Heath Fulkerson
5%
Sharon Brown
2%
Trevor Merrell
1%
Mandy Ghusar
<1%
$32,229 Vol.
Mike Thompson
96%
Eric Jones
92%
John Wesley Tyler
9%
Laurie MacKenzie
5%
Heath Fulkerson
5%
Sharon Brown
2%
Trevor Merrell
1%
Mandy Ghusar
<1%
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 5:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent Representative Mike Thompson seeks renomination in California's 4th congressional district under the state's top-two primary system, where the two leading vote-getters advance regardless of party. Recent redistricting through Proposition 50 has shifted boundaries to strengthen Democratic performance in the solidly blue district. Thompson, a longtime moderate Democrat, faces his most notable primary challenger in Eric Jones, a venture capitalist backed by substantial fundraising and a multimillion-dollar voter mobilization group. Multiple Republican candidates, including Sharon Brown and Mandy Ghusar, are also on the ballot for the June 2, 2026, primary. Trader sentiment reflects the district's partisan lean and Thompson's incumbency advantages alongside Jones's organized support as the primary factors shaping advancement probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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