Nearly one month into the US-Israel war with Iran—sparked by February 28 airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion—military action continues unabated, with US forces striking over 11,000 targets to degrade ballistic missile, drone, and naval capabilities by up to 90%. Iran has retaliated via missile barrages on Israel and US bases in the Gulf, while proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis escalate, including today's Houthi missile attack on Israel. Diplomatic efforts stalled after Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement and Strait of Hormuz reopening, issuing counter-demands for compensation and Lebanon inclusion; Trump extended pauses on energy strikes amid uncertain mediator talks. Traders eye proxy fronts and negotiation breakthroughs for de-escalation signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$199,289 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
1%
March 30
1%
March 31
3%
15 avril
26%
30 avril
56%
31 mai
77%
30 juin
91%
$199,289 Vol.
March 29
$27,722 Vol.
1%
March 30
$22,333 Vol.
1%
March 31
$83,944 Vol.
3%
15 avril
$3,278 Vol.
26%
30 avril
$1,014 Vol.
56%
31 mai
$1,997 Vol.
77%
30 juin
$7 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Nearly one month into the US-Israel war with Iran—sparked by February 28 airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion—military action continues unabated, with US forces striking over 11,000 targets to degrade ballistic missile, drone, and naval capabilities by up to 90%. Iran has retaliated via missile barrages on Israel and US bases in the Gulf, while proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis escalate, including today's Houthi missile attack on Israel. Diplomatic efforts stalled after Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement and Strait of Hormuz reopening, issuing counter-demands for compensation and Lebanon inclusion; Trump extended pauses on energy strikes amid uncertain mediator talks. Traders eye proxy fronts and negotiation breakthroughs for de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Volume
$199,289Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Nearly one month into the US-Israel war with Iran—sparked by February 28 airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion—military action continues unabated, with US forces striking over 11,000 targets to degrade ballistic missile, drone, and naval capabilities by up to 90%. Iran has retaliated via missile barrages on Israel and US bases in the Gulf, while proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis escalate, including today's Houthi missile attack on Israel. Diplomatic efforts stalled after Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement and Strait of Hormuz reopening, issuing counter-demands for compensation and Lebanon inclusion; Trump extended pauses on energy strikes amid uncertain mediator talks. Traders eye proxy fronts and negotiation breakthroughs for de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$199,289Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 25, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Nearly one month into the US-Israel war with Iran—sparked by February 28 airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei under Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion—military action continues unabated, with US forces striking over 11,000 targets to degrade ballistic missile, drone, and naval capabilities by up to 90%. Iran has retaliated via missile barrages on Israel and US bases in the Gulf, while proxies like Hezbollah and Houthis escalate, including today's Houthi missile attack on Israel. Diplomatic efforts stalled after Iran rejected a US 15-point ceasefire proposal demanding nuclear dismantlement and Strait of Hormuz reopening, issuing counter-demands for compensation and Lebanon inclusion; Trump extended pauses on energy strikes amid uncertain mediator talks. Traders eye proxy fronts and negotiation breakthroughs for de-escalation signals.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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