US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including in Tehran and ballistic missile sites, continue into the fourth week of the conflict that erupted on February 28, 2026, with over 10,000 US strikes degrading Tehran's capabilities. Iran is reviewing a US ceasefire proposal mediated through third parties, following President Trump's postponement of infrastructure attacks to facilitate talks, though Tehran rejected an earlier 15-point plan and outlined counter-conditions like reparations. Houthis escalated yesterday by launching missiles at Israel, signaling proxy involvement, while no clear de-escalation timeline exists amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and potential energy strikes. Traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against ongoing operations and rejection risks ahead of Trump's Friday deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$192,505 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
1%
March 30
2%
March 31
4%
15 avril
27%
30 avril
57%
31 mai
77%
30 juin
92%
$192,505 Vol.
March 29
$27,535 Vol.
1%
March 30
$22,269 Vol.
2%
March 31
$77,812 Vol.
4%
15 avril
$3,077 Vol.
27%
30 avril
$1,014 Vol.
57%
31 mai
$1,772 Vol.
77%
30 juin
$7 Vol.
92%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including in Tehran and ballistic missile sites, continue into the fourth week of the conflict that erupted on February 28, 2026, with over 10,000 US strikes degrading Tehran's capabilities. Iran is reviewing a US ceasefire proposal mediated through third parties, following President Trump's postponement of infrastructure attacks to facilitate talks, though Tehran rejected an earlier 15-point plan and outlined counter-conditions like reparations. Houthis escalated yesterday by launching missiles at Israel, signaling proxy involvement, while no clear de-escalation timeline exists amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and potential energy strikes. Traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against ongoing operations and rejection risks ahead of Trump's Friday deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$192,505Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including in Tehran and ballistic missile sites, continue into the fourth week of the conflict that erupted on February 28, 2026, with over 10,000 US strikes degrading Tehran's capabilities. Iran is reviewing a US ceasefire proposal mediated through third parties, following President Trump's postponement of infrastructure attacks to facilitate talks, though Tehran rejected an earlier 15-point plan and outlined counter-conditions like reparations. Houthis escalated yesterday by launching missiles at Israel, signaling proxy involvement, while no clear de-escalation timeline exists amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and potential energy strikes. Traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against ongoing operations and rejection risks ahead of Trump's Friday deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$192,505Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
US and Israeli airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including in Tehran and ballistic missile sites, continue into the fourth week of the conflict that erupted on February 28, 2026, with over 10,000 US strikes degrading Tehran's capabilities. Iran is reviewing a US ceasefire proposal mediated through third parties, following President Trump's postponement of infrastructure attacks to facilitate talks, though Tehran rejected an earlier 15-point plan and outlined counter-conditions like reparations. Houthis escalated yesterday by launching missiles at Israel, signaling proxy involvement, while no clear de-escalation timeline exists amid Strait of Hormuz tensions and potential energy strikes. Traders weigh diplomatic breakthroughs against ongoing operations and rejection risks ahead of Trump's Friday deadline.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes