US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now in their fourth week since launching on February 28, 2026, continue targeting ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities, and industrial infrastructure, with over 600 Israeli strikes reported last week alone and recent attacks on Tehran and Isfahan on March 27. Iran has retaliated via missile barrages and Houthi proxy assaults on Israel, while releasing images of damage to underscore escalation risks. Diplomatic momentum emerged March 25 as Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities, prompting Trump to postpone infrastructure strikes amid "productive conversations," though Tehran denies formal ceasefire talks. Traders weigh sustained degradation of Iranian military capabilities against negotiation uncertainties and potential ground operations, with no resolution timeline set.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$197,500 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
1%
March 30
2%
March 31
4%
15 avril
27%
30 avril
56%
31 mai
77%
30 juin
91%
$197,500 Vol.
March 29
$27,722 Vol.
1%
March 30
$22,333 Vol.
2%
March 31
$82,330 Vol.
4%
15 avril
$3,078 Vol.
27%
30 avril
$1,014 Vol.
56%
31 mai
$1,997 Vol.
77%
30 juin
$7 Vol.
91%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now in their fourth week since launching on February 28, 2026, continue targeting ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities, and industrial infrastructure, with over 600 Israeli strikes reported last week alone and recent attacks on Tehran and Isfahan on March 27. Iran has retaliated via missile barrages and Houthi proxy assaults on Israel, while releasing images of damage to underscore escalation risks. Diplomatic momentum emerged March 25 as Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities, prompting Trump to postpone infrastructure strikes amid "productive conversations," though Tehran denies formal ceasefire talks. Traders weigh sustained degradation of Iranian military capabilities against negotiation uncertainties and potential ground operations, with no resolution timeline set.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$197,500Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now in their fourth week since launching on February 28, 2026, continue targeting ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities, and industrial infrastructure, with over 600 Israeli strikes reported last week alone and recent attacks on Tehran and Isfahan on March 27. Iran has retaliated via missile barrages and Houthi proxy assaults on Israel, while releasing images of damage to underscore escalation risks. Diplomatic momentum emerged March 25 as Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities, prompting Trump to postpone infrastructure strikes amid "productive conversations," though Tehran denies formal ceasefire talks. Traders weigh sustained degradation of Iranian military capabilities against negotiation uncertainties and potential ground operations, with no resolution timeline set.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$197,500Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
US and Israeli airstrikes against Iran, now in their fourth week since launching on February 28, 2026, continue targeting ballistic missile sites, nuclear facilities, and industrial infrastructure, with over 600 Israeli strikes reported last week alone and recent attacks on Tehran and Isfahan on March 27. Iran has retaliated via missile barrages and Houthi proxy assaults on Israel, while releasing images of damage to underscore escalation risks. Diplomatic momentum emerged March 25 as Iran reviews a US-mediated proposal to end hostilities, prompting Trump to postpone infrastructure strikes amid "productive conversations," though Tehran denies formal ceasefire talks. Traders weigh sustained degradation of Iranian military capabilities against negotiation uncertainties and potential ground operations, with no resolution timeline set.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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