Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88% implied probability for March US CPI month-over-month (MoM) inflation at ≥0.8%, propelled by surging energy costs from the escalating Iran conflict, which has driven oil above $120 per barrel amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The Cleveland Fed's latest nowcast pegs headline CPI MoM at 0.84%—a sharp jump from February's tame 0.3% print—reflecting heightened gasoline and commodity pressures while core CPI holds milder at 0.20%. This shift overrides prior moderation trends, with secondary outcomes like 0.7% (5.5%) capturing residual uncertainty around passthrough effects. Traders eye the BLS release on April 10 for confirmation, ahead of potential FOMC reassessment of rate path amid sticky inflation risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour≥0,8 % 89%
0.7% 6%
0.6% 1.4%
≤0.3% <1%
$538,426 Vol.
$538,426 Vol.
≤0.3%
1%
0.4%
1%
0.5%
1%
0.6%
1%
0.7%
6%
≥0,8 %
89%
≥0,8 % 89%
0.7% 6%
0.6% 1.4%
≤0.3% <1%
$538,426 Vol.
$538,426 Vol.
≤0.3%
1%
0.4%
1%
0.5%
1%
0.6%
1%
0.7%
6%
≥0,8 %
89%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 1:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in March 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for March 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on April 10, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 88% implied probability for March US CPI month-over-month (MoM) inflation at ≥0.8%, propelled by surging energy costs from the escalating Iran conflict, which has driven oil above $120 per barrel amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The Cleveland Fed's latest nowcast pegs headline CPI MoM at 0.84%—a sharp jump from February's tame 0.3% print—reflecting heightened gasoline and commodity pressures while core CPI holds milder at 0.20%. This shift overrides prior moderation trends, with secondary outcomes like 0.7% (5.5%) capturing residual uncertainty around passthrough effects. Traders eye the BLS release on April 10 for confirmation, ahead of potential FOMC reassessment of rate path amid sticky inflation risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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