A month into the US-Israel air campaign against Iran—launched February 28 following strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and top officials—the IDF reports its targeting of Iranian missile bases, nuclear sites, and defense industries is nearly complete, having degraded roughly two-thirds of Tehran's missile stockpile amid daily Iranian retaliatory barrages on Israel and recent Houthi involvement. President Trump floated US seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal today, signaling potential escalation as 2,500 Marines deploy, while Pakistan announced it will soon host US-Iran talks after Tehran rejected a 15-point ceasefire proposal and issued a counteroffer demanding reparations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus ground invasion risks ahead of any April deadlines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIran x Le conflit israélo-américain se termine d'ici... ?
Iran x Le conflit israélo-américain se termine d'ici... ?
$8,522,179 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
31 mars
1%
15 avril
15%
7 avril
4%
30 avril
26%
15 mai
37%
30 juin
62%
31 décembre
80%
$8,522,179 Vol.
31 mars
$4,371,031 Vol.
1%
15 avril
$968,437 Vol.
15%
7 avril
$148,004 Vol.
4%
30 avril
$732,674 Vol.
26%
15 mai
$1,221,545 Vol.
37%
30 juin
$850,978 Vol.
62%
31 décembre
$229,829 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A month into the US-Israel air campaign against Iran—launched February 28 following strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and top officials—the IDF reports its targeting of Iranian missile bases, nuclear sites, and defense industries is nearly complete, having degraded roughly two-thirds of Tehran's missile stockpile amid daily Iranian retaliatory barrages on Israel and recent Houthi involvement. President Trump floated US seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal today, signaling potential escalation as 2,500 Marines deploy, while Pakistan announced it will soon host US-Iran talks after Tehran rejected a 15-point ceasefire proposal and issued a counteroffer demanding reparations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus ground invasion risks ahead of any April deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Volume
$8,522,179Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.A month into the US-Israel air campaign against Iran—launched February 28 following strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and top officials—the IDF reports its targeting of Iranian missile bases, nuclear sites, and defense industries is nearly complete, having degraded roughly two-thirds of Tehran's missile stockpile amid daily Iranian retaliatory barrages on Israel and recent Houthi involvement. President Trump floated US seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal today, signaling potential escalation as 2,500 Marines deploy, while Pakistan announced it will soon host US-Iran talks after Tehran rejected a 15-point ceasefire proposal and issued a counteroffer demanding reparations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus ground invasion risks ahead of any April deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$8,522,179Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A month into the US-Israel air campaign against Iran—launched February 28 following strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and top officials—the IDF reports its targeting of Iranian missile bases, nuclear sites, and defense industries is nearly complete, having degraded roughly two-thirds of Tehran's missile stockpile amid daily Iranian retaliatory barrages on Israel and recent Houthi involvement. President Trump floated US seizure of Iran's Kharg Island oil terminal today, signaling potential escalation as 2,500 Marines deploy, while Pakistan announced it will soon host US-Iran talks after Tehran rejected a 15-point ceasefire proposal and issued a counteroffer demanding reparations. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over diplomatic breakthroughs versus ground invasion risks ahead of any April deadlines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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