The US-Israel war against Iran, triggered on February 28 by airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marks Day 31 with no ceasefire in sight despite degraded Iranian missile capabilities—now averaging 10 daily launches versus 90 initially. March 29 escalations featured Houthi strikes on Israel, Iranian hits on a southern industrial zone, and US deployments of 2,500 Marines plus the USS Tripoli's 3,500 troops, as Iran warns against ground invasions. Diplomatic momentum includes Iran's review of a US 15-point ceasefire plan and a March 30 regional summit in Pakistan, while Trump extended the Strait of Hormuz deadline. Hezbollah's northern attacks and proxy involvement heighten multi-front risks, with traders eyeing negotiations amid ongoing barrages.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIran x Le conflit israélo-américain se termine d'ici... ?
Iran x Le conflit israélo-américain se termine d'ici... ?
$8,442,896 Vol.
Mar 15, 2026
31 mars
1%
15 avril
14%
7 avril
4%
30 avril
26%
15 mai
38%
30 juin
60%
31 décembre
80%
$8,442,896 Vol.
31 mars
$4,347,358 Vol.
1%
15 avril
$955,466 Vol.
14%
7 avril
$142,376 Vol.
4%
30 avril
$729,654 Vol.
26%
15 mai
$1,218,218 Vol.
38%
30 juin
$828,648 Vol.
60%
31 décembre
$221,197 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war against Iran, triggered on February 28 by airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marks Day 31 with no ceasefire in sight despite degraded Iranian missile capabilities—now averaging 10 daily launches versus 90 initially. March 29 escalations featured Houthi strikes on Israel, Iranian hits on a southern industrial zone, and US deployments of 2,500 Marines plus the USS Tripoli's 3,500 troops, as Iran warns against ground invasions. Diplomatic momentum includes Iran's review of a US 15-point ceasefire plan and a March 30 regional summit in Pakistan, while Trump extended the Strait of Hormuz deadline. Hezbollah's northern attacks and proxy involvement heighten multi-front risks, with traders eyeing negotiations amid ongoing barrages.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Marché ouvert : Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ET
Volume
$8,442,896Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.The US-Israel war against Iran, triggered on February 28 by airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marks Day 31 with no ceasefire in sight despite degraded Iranian missile capabilities—now averaging 10 daily launches versus 90 initially. March 29 escalations featured Houthi strikes on Israel, Iranian hits on a southern industrial zone, and US deployments of 2,500 Marines plus the USS Tripoli's 3,500 troops, as Iran warns against ground invasions. Diplomatic momentum includes Iran's review of a US 15-point ceasefire plan and a March 30 regional summit in Pakistan, while Trump extended the Strait of Hormuz deadline. Hezbollah's northern attacks and proxy involvement heighten multi-front risks, with traders eyeing negotiations amid ongoing barrages.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a continuous 14-day period without any qualifying military action between Iran, and Israel and the United States that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
The 14-day period may begin at any time between the creation of this market and the specified end date (ET), and must continue uninterrupted through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day after the strike is confirmed.
A "military action" is defined as any use of force by Iran, or Israel and the United States against the other’s soil, or official embassies or consulates, that is either officially acknowledged by the acting government or confirmed through a clear consensus of credible reporting.
This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, and ground incursions.
Cyberattacks, sanctions, and diplomatic actions do not count.
Only actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will qualify as Iranian military actions. Attacks on Israel or the US by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count.
Volume
$8,442,896Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 28, 2026, 9:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Non
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Non
The US-Israel war against Iran, triggered on February 28 by airstrikes killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, marks Day 31 with no ceasefire in sight despite degraded Iranian missile capabilities—now averaging 10 daily launches versus 90 initially. March 29 escalations featured Houthi strikes on Israel, Iranian hits on a southern industrial zone, and US deployments of 2,500 Marines plus the USS Tripoli's 3,500 troops, as Iran warns against ground invasions. Diplomatic momentum includes Iran's review of a US 15-point ceasefire plan and a March 30 regional summit in Pakistan, while Trump extended the Strait of Hormuz deadline. Hezbollah's northern attacks and proxy involvement heighten multi-front risks, with traders eyeing negotiations amid ongoing barrages.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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