Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated indirectly via Oman, hit a snag after Iran's late February offer for zero net enriched uranium stockpiling and IAEA verification, which fell short of Washington's demands for full dismantlement and handover of the existing 450kg near-weapons-grade stockpile. A March 25 US 15-point proposal escalated requirements, including ending all enrichment and transferring material abroad, prompting President Trump to reiterate no deal without abandonment of nuclear ambitions. IAEA reports highlight ongoing verification gaps at sites like Natanz and Fordow. With no public surrender commitment announced as of March 28 and the March 31 deadline looming, trader consensus reflects deep divides over sanctions relief, ballistic missiles, and stockpile disposition, amid potential for last-minute diplomatic breakthroughs or further breakdowns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?
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$34,377 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
April 30
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June 30
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December 31
35%
$34,377 Vol.
April 30
$6,547 Vol.
13%
June 30
$5,363 Vol.
26%
December 31
$22,466 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated indirectly via Oman, hit a snag after Iran's late February offer for zero net enriched uranium stockpiling and IAEA verification, which fell short of Washington's demands for full dismantlement and handover of the existing 450kg near-weapons-grade stockpile. A March 25 US 15-point proposal escalated requirements, including ending all enrichment and transferring material abroad, prompting President Trump to reiterate no deal without abandonment of nuclear ambitions. IAEA reports highlight ongoing verification gaps at sites like Natanz and Fordow. With no public surrender commitment announced as of March 28 and the March 31 deadline looming, trader consensus reflects deep divides over sanctions relief, ballistic missiles, and stockpile disposition, amid potential for last-minute diplomatic breakthroughs or further breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$34,377Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated indirectly via Oman, hit a snag after Iran's late February offer for zero net enriched uranium stockpiling and IAEA verification, which fell short of Washington's demands for full dismantlement and handover of the existing 450kg near-weapons-grade stockpile. A March 25 US 15-point proposal escalated requirements, including ending all enrichment and transferring material abroad, prompting President Trump to reiterate no deal without abandonment of nuclear ambitions. IAEA reports highlight ongoing verification gaps at sites like Natanz and Fordow. With no public surrender commitment announced as of March 28 and the March 31 deadline looming, trader consensus reflects deep divides over sanctions relief, ballistic missiles, and stockpile disposition, amid potential for last-minute diplomatic breakthroughs or further breakdowns.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count.
To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors).
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$34,377Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 26, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, mediated indirectly via Oman, hit a snag after Iran's late February offer for zero net enriched uranium stockpiling and IAEA verification, which fell short of Washington's demands for full dismantlement and handover of the existing 450kg near-weapons-grade stockpile. A March 25 US 15-point proposal escalated requirements, including ending all enrichment and transferring material abroad, prompting President Trump to reiterate no deal without abandonment of nuclear ambitions. IAEA reports highlight ongoing verification gaps at sites like Natanz and Fordow. With no public surrender commitment announced as of March 28 and the March 31 deadline looming, trader consensus reflects deep divides over sanctions relief, ballistic missiles, and stockpile disposition, amid potential for last-minute diplomatic breakthroughs or further breakdowns.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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