Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a June SpaceX IPO at 34% implied probability, leading a fragmented field amid high uncertainty, primarily driven by Elon Musk's repeated insistence that no listing occurs until Starship achieves reliable orbital refueling and Mars mission viability—milestones regulatory filings and public statements peg at 2026 or later. Recent Starship test flights, including partial successes in 2024, fuel optimism for earlier months like April through September (collectively ~60%), while robust private funding at a $210 billion valuation—via tender offers—diminishes near-term pressure, boosting the 12.4% "No IPO before 2027" odds. Key differentiators include Starlink's potential separate 2025 listing and macroeconomic tailwinds from capital markets access.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourJuin 34%
Juillet 8.4%
Septembre 8.3%
Mai 6.2%
$63,505 Vol.
$63,505 Vol.
Mars
1%
Avril
9%
Mai
6%
Juin
34%
Juillet
8%
Août
8%
Septembre
11%
Octobre
4%
Novembre
9%
Décembre
4%
Pas d'introduction en bourse avant 2027
12%
Juin 34%
Juillet 8.4%
Septembre 8.3%
Mai 6.2%
$63,505 Vol.
$63,505 Vol.
Mars
1%
Avril
9%
Mai
6%
Juin
34%
Juillet
8%
Août
8%
Septembre
11%
Octobre
4%
Novembre
9%
Décembre
4%
Pas d'introduction en bourse avant 2027
12%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Marché ouvert : Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a June SpaceX IPO at 34% implied probability, leading a fragmented field amid high uncertainty, primarily driven by Elon Musk's repeated insistence that no listing occurs until Starship achieves reliable orbital refueling and Mars mission viability—milestones regulatory filings and public statements peg at 2026 or later. Recent Starship test flights, including partial successes in 2024, fuel optimism for earlier months like April through September (collectively ~60%), while robust private funding at a $210 billion valuation—via tender offers—diminishes near-term pressure, boosting the 12.4% "No IPO before 2027" odds. Key differentiators include Starlink's potential separate 2025 listing and macroeconomic tailwinds from capital markets access.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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