Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a June SpaceX IPO at 32% implied probability, driven by optimism over Starship's recent Flight 5 success and accelerating test cadence, signaling potential operational maturity that could greenlight a listing after years of Elon Musk's cautions against premature public markets. The fragmented odds across months highlight deep uncertainty, with 12.5% on no IPO before 2027 reflecting SpaceX's $350 billion private valuation, robust Starlink revenue streams obviating capital needs, and regulatory hurdles like FCC spectrum approvals. Differentiators include Q2 fiscal alignment for Starlink carve-out timing, quarterly launch milestones, and broader tech IPO thaw amid cooling inflation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourJuin 34%
Septembre 8.3%
Mai 6.2%
Avril 5.1%
$63,505 Vol.
$63,505 Vol.
Mars
1%
Avril
9%
Mai
6%
Juin
34%
Juillet
8%
Août
8%
Septembre
11%
Octobre
4%
Novembre
9%
Décembre
4%
Pas d'introduction en bourse avant 2027
12%
Juin 34%
Septembre 8.3%
Mai 6.2%
Avril 5.1%
$63,505 Vol.
$63,505 Vol.
Mars
1%
Avril
9%
Mai
6%
Juin
34%
Juillet
8%
Août
8%
Septembre
11%
Octobre
4%
Novembre
9%
Décembre
4%
Pas d'introduction en bourse avant 2027
12%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
Marché ouvert : Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a June SpaceX IPO at 32% implied probability, driven by optimism over Starship's recent Flight 5 success and accelerating test cadence, signaling potential operational maturity that could greenlight a listing after years of Elon Musk's cautions against premature public markets. The fragmented odds across months highlight deep uncertainty, with 12.5% on no IPO before 2027 reflecting SpaceX's $350 billion private valuation, robust Starlink revenue streams obviating capital needs, and regulatory hurdles like FCC spectrum approvals. Differentiators include Q2 fiscal alignment for Starlink carve-out timing, quarterly launch milestones, and broader tech IPO thaw amid cooling inflation.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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