Incumbent Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin maintains a dominant edge in the Illinois Senate race, driving trader consensus to 92% implied probability for a Democrat win amid consistent double-digit polling leads over Republican challenger Kathy Salvi. Late August polls, such as FOX News showing Durbin ahead 55%-35%, align with fundraising superiority—Durbin raised over $20 million versus Salvi's self-funded campaign—and Illinois' status as a Democratic stronghold, with no GOP Senate victory since 1998. Primaries in March settled nominees without surprises, and recent weeks lack catalysts like scandals or national wave shifts to erode the lead ahead of the November 5 election. Upsets remain possible via late-breaking health issues, legal developments, or extraordinary Republican turnout, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$16,491 Vol.
$16,491 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Démocrate
92%
Républicain
6%
$16,491 Vol.
$16,491 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Démocrate
$7,193 Vol.
92%
Républicain
$9,298 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin maintains a dominant edge in the Illinois Senate race, driving trader consensus to 92% implied probability for a Democrat win amid consistent double-digit polling leads over Republican challenger Kathy Salvi. Late August polls, such as FOX News showing Durbin ahead 55%-35%, align with fundraising superiority—Durbin raised over $20 million versus Salvi's self-funded campaign—and Illinois' status as a Democratic stronghold, with no GOP Senate victory since 1998. Primaries in March settled nominees without surprises, and recent weeks lack catalysts like scandals or national wave shifts to erode the lead ahead of the November 5 election. Upsets remain possible via late-breaking health issues, legal developments, or extraordinary Republican turnout, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$16,491Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin maintains a dominant edge in the Illinois Senate race, driving trader consensus to 92% implied probability for a Democrat win amid consistent double-digit polling leads over Republican challenger Kathy Salvi. Late August polls, such as FOX News showing Durbin ahead 55%-35%, align with fundraising superiority—Durbin raised over $20 million versus Salvi's self-funded campaign—and Illinois' status as a Democratic stronghold, with no GOP Senate victory since 1998. Primaries in March settled nominees without surprises, and recent weeks lack catalysts like scandals or national wave shifts to erode the lead ahead of the November 5 election. Upsets remain possible via late-breaking health issues, legal developments, or extraordinary Republican turnout, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Illinois U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$16,491Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Sen. Dick Durbin maintains a dominant edge in the Illinois Senate race, driving trader consensus to 92% implied probability for a Democrat win amid consistent double-digit polling leads over Republican challenger Kathy Salvi. Late August polls, such as FOX News showing Durbin ahead 55%-35%, align with fundraising superiority—Durbin raised over $20 million versus Salvi's self-funded campaign—and Illinois' status as a Democratic stronghold, with no GOP Senate victory since 1998. Primaries in March settled nominees without surprises, and recent weeks lack catalysts like scandals or national wave shifts to erode the lead ahead of the November 5 election. Upsets remain possible via late-breaking health issues, legal developments, or extraordinary Republican turnout, though historical base rates for safe seats favor continuity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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