Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 24–27 Democratic House members not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 29.5%, reflecting 21 announced so far as of March 28 per Ballotpedia and AP trackers—stable since January amid a record early retirement wave with no new Democratic announcements in the past two months. This pace, driven by an aging caucus (average departing Democrat age 75), midterm uncertainties, and mid-decade redistricting in six states, differentiates the leading bin from higher ones like 32–35 (15.2%), which presume a GOP-like exodus (37 Republicans). Further retirements from vulnerable districts or seniors could lift 28–31 odds, while primary filing deadlines and fundraising shortfalls through summer may solidify support for 20–23.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40+ 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
2%
20–23
10%
24–27
30%
28–31
15%
32–35
15%
36–39
6%
40+
13%
24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 15.2%
40+ 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$0 Vol.
2%
20–23
$3,774 Vol.
10%
24–27
$3,153 Vol.
30%
28–31
$0 Vol.
15%
32–35
$0 Vol.
15%
36–39
$0 Vol.
6%
40+
$0 Vol.
13%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 24–27 Democratic House members not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 29.5%, reflecting 21 announced so far as of March 28 per Ballotpedia and AP trackers—stable since January amid a record early retirement wave with no new Democratic announcements in the past two months. This pace, driven by an aging caucus (average departing Democrat age 75), midterm uncertainties, and mid-decade redistricting in six states, differentiates the leading bin from higher ones like 32–35 (15.2%), which presume a GOP-like exodus (37 Republicans). Further retirements from vulnerable districts or seniors could lift 28–31 odds, while primary filing deadlines and fundraising shortfalls through summer may solidify support for 20–23.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$6,927Date de fin
Aug 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 24–27 Democratic House members not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 29.5%, reflecting 21 announced so far as of March 28 per Ballotpedia and AP trackers—stable since January amid a record early retirement wave with no new Democratic announcements in the past two months. This pace, driven by an aging caucus (average departing Democrat age 75), midterm uncertainties, and mid-decade redistricting in six states, differentiates the leading bin from higher ones like 32–35 (15.2%), which presume a GOP-like exodus (37 Republicans). Further retirements from vulnerable districts or seniors could lift 28–31 odds, while primary filing deadlines and fundraising shortfalls through summer may solidify support for 20–23.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,927Date de fin
Aug 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors 24–27 Democratic House members not seeking re-election in the 2026 midterms at 29.5%, reflecting 21 announced so far as of March 28 per Ballotpedia and AP trackers—stable since January amid a record early retirement wave with no new Democratic announcements in the past two months. This pace, driven by an aging caucus (average departing Democrat age 75), midterm uncertainties, and mid-decade redistricting in six states, differentiates the leading bin from higher ones like 32–35 (15.2%), which presume a GOP-like exodus (37 Republicans). Further retirements from vulnerable districts or seniors could lift 28–31 odds, while primary filing deadlines and fundraising shortfalls through summer may solidify support for 20–23.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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