With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election as of early April 2026—among a record 57 total House exits skewed toward Republicans—trader consensus favors 24–27 at 28.5%, implying expectations of 3–6 more announcements before filing deadlines. The tight clustering across mid-20s bins reflects uncertainty over additional retirements from aging members (median ~67 for exiting Democrats), reshaped districts via mid-decade redistricting in states like Texas and California, and bids for Senate or governor races. No Democratic announcements occurred in the past 30 days, stalling upward momentum, while GOP exits like Rep. Sam Graves in late March highlighted broader midterm pressures. State-specific primary deadlines in May–June could spur a wave, separating outcomes toward 28+ if vulnerable swing-district incumbents bow out or holding steady below 24 amid party retention efforts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour24–27 29%
28–31 22%
20–23 17.3%
32–35 13.7%
$27,425 Vol.
$27,425 Vol.
31 août 2026
<20
2%
20–23
17%
24–27
29%
28–31
22%
32–35
14%
36–39
6%
40+
7%
24–27 29%
28–31 22%
20–23 17.3%
32–35 13.7%
$27,425 Vol.
$27,425 Vol.
31 août 2026
<20
$15,389 Vol.
2%
20–23
$4,601 Vol.
17%
24–27
$3,262 Vol.
29%
28–31
$1,039 Vol.
22%
32–35
$3,134 Vol.
14%
36–39
$0 Vol.
6%
40+
$0 Vol.
7%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election as of early April 2026—among a record 57 total House exits skewed toward Republicans—trader consensus favors 24–27 at 28.5%, implying expectations of 3–6 more announcements before filing deadlines. The tight clustering across mid-20s bins reflects uncertainty over additional retirements from aging members (median ~67 for exiting Democrats), reshaped districts via mid-decade redistricting in states like Texas and California, and bids for Senate or governor races. No Democratic announcements occurred in the past 30 days, stalling upward momentum, while GOP exits like Rep. Sam Graves in late March highlighted broader midterm pressures. State-specific primary deadlines in May–June could spur a wave, separating outcomes toward 28+ if vulnerable swing-district incumbents bow out or holding steady below 24 amid party retention efforts.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$27,425Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election as of early April 2026—among a record 57 total House exits skewed toward Republicans—trader consensus favors 24–27 at 28.5%, implying expectations of 3–6 more announcements before filing deadlines. The tight clustering across mid-20s bins reflects uncertainty over additional retirements from aging members (median ~67 for exiting Democrats), reshaped districts via mid-decade redistricting in states like Texas and California, and bids for Senate or governor races. No Democratic announcements occurred in the past 30 days, stalling upward momentum, while GOP exits like Rep. Sam Graves in late March highlighted broader midterm pressures. State-specific primary deadlines in May–June could spur a wave, separating outcomes toward 28+ if vulnerable swing-district incumbents bow out or holding steady below 24 amid party retention efforts.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$27,425Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...With 21 Democratic House incumbents having announced they will not seek re-election as of early April 2026—among a record 57 total House exits skewed toward Republicans—trader consensus favors 24–27 at 28.5%, implying expectations of 3–6 more announcements before filing deadlines. The tight clustering across mid-20s bins reflects uncertainty over additional retirements from aging members (median ~67 for exiting Democrats), reshaped districts via mid-decade redistricting in states like Texas and California, and bids for Senate or governor races. No Democratic announcements occurred in the past 30 days, stalling upward momentum, while GOP exits like Rep. Sam Graves in late March highlighted broader midterm pressures. State-specific primary deadlines in May–June could spur a wave, separating outcomes toward 28+ if vulnerable swing-district incumbents bow out or holding steady below 24 amid party retention efforts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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