Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 30°C high in São Paulo today at 49% implied probability, reflecting the latest forecasts from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and ensemble models projecting peak temperatures near 30°C under dominant high-pressure ridging and abundant sunshine. This positions 29°C (23.5%) and 31°C (14.5%) as strong contenders amid minor model spread, amplified by the city's urban heat island effect that routinely elevates readings 1-2°C above surrounding areas. Late March climatology typically sees highs of 27-28°C, but drier conditions following early-month heavy rains and floods have allowed warmer anticyclonic flow to prevail. Real-time data from official stations like Congonhas Airport and Guarulhos will track solar-driven peaks this afternoon, with any unexpected cloud cover potentially capping the maximum lower.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 28?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 28?
30°C 50%
29°C 24%
31°C 15%
28°C 7%
$40,837 Vol.
$40,837 Vol.
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
7%
29°C
24%
30°C
50%
31°C
15%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 50%
29°C 24%
31°C 15%
28°C 7%
$40,837 Vol.
$40,837 Vol.
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
7%
29°C
24%
30°C
50%
31°C
15%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 30°C high in São Paulo today at 49% implied probability, reflecting the latest forecasts from Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) and ensemble models projecting peak temperatures near 30°C under dominant high-pressure ridging and abundant sunshine. This positions 29°C (23.5%) and 31°C (14.5%) as strong contenders amid minor model spread, amplified by the city's urban heat island effect that routinely elevates readings 1-2°C above surrounding areas. Late March climatology typically sees highs of 27-28°C, but drier conditions following early-month heavy rains and floods have allowed warmer anticyclonic flow to prevail. Real-time data from official stations like Congonhas Airport and Guarulhos will track solar-driven peaks this afternoon, with any unexpected cloud cover potentially capping the maximum lower.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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