Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 14–16°C peak highs for Milan on March 27 (30.5%, 26.0%, and 21.5% implied probabilities, respectively), reflecting ensemble forecast spreads from ECMWF and GFS models updated in the last 24 hours. Latest runs depict mild southerly airflow overriding residual cold air from a recent frontal passage, with 2–3°C uncertainty stemming from cloud cover variability, boundary layer mixing, and diurnal heating rates. Late March climatology averages 13°C, providing baseline context amid neutral ENSO influences. Key differentiators include potential for increased insolation favoring 16°C versus persistent stratus capping at 14°C; traders eye 12Z model refreshes and March 26 soundings for resolution clarity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Milan on March 27?
Highest temperature in Milan on March 27?
14°C 30%
15°C 25%
16°C 21%
13°C 11%
$15,317 Vol.
$15,317 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
11%
14°C
30%
15°C
25%
16°C
21%
17°C
8%
18°C or higher
2%
14°C 30%
15°C 25%
16°C 21%
13°C 11%
$15,317 Vol.
$15,317 Vol.
8°C or below
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
3%
13°C
11%
14°C
30%
15°C
25%
16°C
21%
17°C
8%
18°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 14–16°C peak highs for Milan on March 27 (30.5%, 26.0%, and 21.5% implied probabilities, respectively), reflecting ensemble forecast spreads from ECMWF and GFS models updated in the last 24 hours. Latest runs depict mild southerly airflow overriding residual cold air from a recent frontal passage, with 2–3°C uncertainty stemming from cloud cover variability, boundary layer mixing, and diurnal heating rates. Late March climatology averages 13°C, providing baseline context amid neutral ENSO influences. Key differentiators include potential for increased insolation favoring 16°C versus persistent stratus capping at 14°C; traders eye 12Z model refreshes and March 26 soundings for resolution clarity.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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