Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 22°C in Madrid on March 25, reflecting near-unanimous agreement from leading forecast models like ECMWF ensembles and AEMET guidance, which project mild late-winter conditions under a stable high-pressure ridge with light southerly winds and clear skies limiting daytime heating. Observational data from recent days shows consistent temperatures in the low-20s°C range amid typical March climatology, where Madrid's average highs hover around 16–18°C but occasionally spike modestly without extremes. This positioning is reinforced by model convergence in the past 48 hours, ruling out hotter scenarios absent a sudden warm front. Realistic challenges include unanticipated Saharan dust influx boosting solar insolation or microscale urban heat effects, though probabilities remain negligible per current ensemble spreads; final hourly observations from official stations will confirm resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Madrid on March 25?
Highest temperature in Madrid on March 25?
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 25, 2026
14°C or below
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 25, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
No
15°C
$0 Vol.
No
16°C
$0 Vol.
No
17°C
$0 Vol.
No
18°C
$0 Vol.
No
19°C
$0 Vol.
No
20°C
$0 Vol.
No
21°C
$0 Vol.
No
22°C
$0 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$0 Vol.
No
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 22°C in Madrid on March 25, reflecting near-unanimous agreement from leading forecast models like ECMWF ensembles and AEMET guidance, which project mild late-winter conditions under a stable high-pressure ridge with light southerly winds and clear skies limiting daytime heating. Observational data from recent days shows consistent temperatures in the low-20s°C range amid typical March climatology, where Madrid's average highs hover around 16–18°C but occasionally spike modestly without extremes. This positioning is reinforced by model convergence in the past 48 hours, ruling out hotter scenarios absent a sudden warm front. Realistic challenges include unanticipated Saharan dust influx boosting solar insolation or microscale urban heat effects, though probabilities remain negligible per current ensemble spreads; final hourly observations from official stations will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Mar 25, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 21, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 22°C in Madrid on March 25, reflecting near-unanimous agreement from leading forecast models like ECMWF ensembles and AEMET guidance, which project mild late-winter conditions under a stable high-pressure ridge with light southerly winds and clear skies limiting daytime heating. Observational data from recent days shows consistent temperatures in the low-20s°C range amid typical March climatology, where Madrid's average highs hover around 16–18°C but occasionally spike modestly without extremes. This positioning is reinforced by model convergence in the past 48 hours, ruling out hotter scenarios absent a sudden warm front. Realistic challenges include unanticipated Saharan dust influx boosting solar insolation or microscale urban heat effects, though probabilities remain negligible per current ensemble spreads; final hourly observations from official stations will confirm resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Mar 25, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 21, 2026, 6:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly backs a highest temperature of 22°C in Madrid on March 25, reflecting near-unanimous agreement from leading forecast models like ECMWF ensembles and AEMET guidance, which project mild late-winter conditions under a stable high-pressure ridge with light southerly winds and clear skies limiting daytime heating. Observational data from recent days shows consistent temperatures in the low-20s°C range amid typical March climatology, where Madrid's average highs hover around 16–18°C but occasionally spike modestly without extremes. This positioning is reinforced by model convergence in the past 48 hours, ruling out hotter scenarios absent a sudden warm front. Realistic challenges include unanticipated Saharan dust influx boosting solar insolation or microscale urban heat effects, though probabilities remain negligible per current ensemble spreads; final hourly observations from official stations will confirm resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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