Hezbollah's sustained missile barrages and rocket attacks against Israeli military sites in northern Israel and Tel Aviv, including a record 82 operations claimed on March 26, anchor trader consensus amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that erupted early March following the group's retaliation for US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Israel has responded with intensified airstrikes on Beirut suburbs, bridge infrastructure in southern Lebanon, and ground advances, resulting in nearly 1,100 Lebanese deaths and pushing Hezbollah fighters into defensive postures. Hezbollah's leader rejected ceasefire talks under fire on March 25, vowing unlimited operations, while uncertain US-led negotiations and Israeli domestic opposition to the war's expansion introduce volatility ahead of potential diplomatic breakthroughs or further escalations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHezbollah military action against Israel on...?
Hezbollah military action against Israel on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
85%
April 2
83%
April 3
71%
April 4
52%
April 5
51%
April 6
71%
April 7
73%
April 8
52%
April 9
53%
April 10
51%
$820 Vol.
April 1
$433 Vol.
85%
April 2
$194 Vol.
83%
April 3
$17 Vol.
71%
April 4
$0 Vol.
52%
April 5
$0 Vol.
51%
April 6
$176 Vol.
71%
April 7
$0 Vol.
73%
April 8
$0 Vol.
52%
April 9
$0 Vol.
53%
April 10
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah's sustained missile barrages and rocket attacks against Israeli military sites in northern Israel and Tel Aviv, including a record 82 operations claimed on March 26, anchor trader consensus amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that erupted early March following the group's retaliation for US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Israel has responded with intensified airstrikes on Beirut suburbs, bridge infrastructure in southern Lebanon, and ground advances, resulting in nearly 1,100 Lebanese deaths and pushing Hezbollah fighters into defensive postures. Hezbollah's leader rejected ceasefire talks under fire on March 25, vowing unlimited operations, while uncertain US-led negotiations and Israeli domestic opposition to the war's expansion introduce volatility ahead of potential diplomatic breakthroughs or further escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ET
Volume
$820Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Hezbollah's sustained missile barrages and rocket attacks against Israeli military sites in northern Israel and Tel Aviv, including a record 82 operations claimed on March 26, anchor trader consensus amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that erupted early March following the group's retaliation for US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Israel has responded with intensified airstrikes on Beirut suburbs, bridge infrastructure in southern Lebanon, and ground advances, resulting in nearly 1,100 Lebanese deaths and pushing Hezbollah fighters into defensive postures. Hezbollah's leader rejected ceasefire talks under fire on March 25, vowing unlimited operations, while uncertain US-led negotiations and Israeli domestic opposition to the war's expansion introduce volatility ahead of potential diplomatic breakthroughs or further escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hezbollah initiates a drone, missile, or air strike that impacts Israeli ground territory on the specified date, Israel Standard Time (UTC+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Hezbollah forces that physically impact land under Israeli control.
Israeli ground territory, for the purposes of this market, refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all territory under de facto Israeli government administration as of market creation. This includes the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights and East Jerusalem, but excludes the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted before reaching the ground, or surface-to-air missile strikes, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether debris lands on Israeli soil or causes damage.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$820Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Hezbollah's sustained missile barrages and rocket attacks against Israeli military sites in northern Israel and Tel Aviv, including a record 82 operations claimed on March 26, anchor trader consensus amid the ongoing 2026 Lebanon war that erupted early March following the group's retaliation for US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Israel has responded with intensified airstrikes on Beirut suburbs, bridge infrastructure in southern Lebanon, and ground advances, resulting in nearly 1,100 Lebanese deaths and pushing Hezbollah fighters into defensive postures. Hezbollah's leader rejected ceasefire talks under fire on March 25, vowing unlimited operations, while uncertain US-led negotiations and Israeli domestic opposition to the war's expansion introduce volatility ahead of potential diplomatic breakthroughs or further escalations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes