Polymarket traders assign modest implied probabilities—around 35%—to WTI crude oil (CL) surpassing $85 by June's end, reflecting bearish sentiment amid surging US inventories reported at +3.9 million barrels last week per EIA data, offsetting gains from Middle East tensions. Current front-month CL futures hover near $81.50, down from April peaks above $90, pressured by softening Chinese demand and high interest rates curbing global growth. Key upside risks include tighter OPEC+ supply discipline through Q3 and peak summer driving season, while downside looms from Thursday's EIA report and next week's FOMC dot plot signaling prolonged high rates. Resolution hinges on NYMEX close above threshold on June 28.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLe pétrole brut (CL) atteindra-t-il__ d'ici la fin du mois de juin ?
Le pétrole brut (CL) atteindra-t-il__ d'ici la fin du mois de juin ?
$2,229,510 Vol.
↑ 200 $
12%
↑ $175
15%
↑ 150 $
21%
↑ $140
25%
↑ $130
34%
↑ $120
42%
↑ $115
48%
↑ 110 $
48%
↑ $105
64%
↑ 100 $
65%
↓ $85
90%
↓ $80
74%
↓ $70
48%
↓ $60
24%
↓ 55 $
20%
↓ 52 $
14%
↓ 50 $
10%
↓ 47 $
6%
↓ 45 $
3%
↓ 40 $
3%
↓ 35 $
2%
$2,229,510 Vol.
↑ 200 $
12%
↑ $175
15%
↑ 150 $
21%
↑ $140
25%
↑ $130
34%
↑ $120
42%
↑ $115
48%
↑ 110 $
48%
↑ $105
64%
↑ 100 $
65%
↓ $85
90%
↓ $80
74%
↓ $70
48%
↓ $60
24%
↓ 55 $
20%
↓ 52 $
14%
↓ 50 $
10%
↓ 47 $
6%
↓ 45 $
3%
↓ 40 $
3%
↓ 35 $
2%
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Mar 19, 2026, 1:59 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign modest implied probabilities—around 35%—to WTI crude oil (CL) surpassing $85 by June's end, reflecting bearish sentiment amid surging US inventories reported at +3.9 million barrels last week per EIA data, offsetting gains from Middle East tensions. Current front-month CL futures hover near $81.50, down from April peaks above $90, pressured by softening Chinese demand and high interest rates curbing global growth. Key upside risks include tighter OPEC+ supply discipline through Q3 and peak summer driving season, while downside looms from Thursday's EIA report and next week's FOMC dot plot signaling prolonged high rates. Resolution hinges on NYMEX close above threshold on June 28.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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