Redistricting under California’s Proposition 50 transformed the 48th District from a historically Republican San Diego-area seat into one with a slight Democratic lean, shifting ratings to Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic and giving Democrats a structural edge in voter registration and turnout. Incumbent Representative Darrell Issa’s March 2026 retirement and endorsement of San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond opened the race, removing a strong Republican advantage ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party outcomes at 84.5 percent because the redrawn map and open-seat dynamics outweigh Republican consolidation efforts around Desmond, even as early polling shows him leading the field. The 13.5 percent Republican share reflects uncertainty over which Democrat advances to the November 3 general election and the district’s remaining competitiveness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-48 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-48 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
85%
Parti républicain
14%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$5,754 Vol.
85%
Parti républicain
$4,139 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California’s Proposition 50 transformed the 48th District from a historically Republican San Diego-area seat into one with a slight Democratic lean, shifting ratings to Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic and giving Democrats a structural edge in voter registration and turnout. Incumbent Representative Darrell Issa’s March 2026 retirement and endorsement of San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond opened the race, removing a strong Republican advantage ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party outcomes at 84.5 percent because the redrawn map and open-seat dynamics outweigh Republican consolidation efforts around Desmond, even as early polling shows him leading the field. The 13.5 percent Republican share reflects uncertainty over which Democrat advances to the November 3 general election and the district’s remaining competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$9,893Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California’s Proposition 50 transformed the 48th District from a historically Republican San Diego-area seat into one with a slight Democratic lean, shifting ratings to Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic and giving Democrats a structural edge in voter registration and turnout. Incumbent Representative Darrell Issa’s March 2026 retirement and endorsement of San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond opened the race, removing a strong Republican advantage ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party outcomes at 84.5 percent because the redrawn map and open-seat dynamics outweigh Republican consolidation efforts around Desmond, even as early polling shows him leading the field. The 13.5 percent Republican share reflects uncertainty over which Democrat advances to the November 3 general election and the district’s remaining competitiveness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,893Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California’s Proposition 50 transformed the 48th District from a historically Republican San Diego-area seat into one with a slight Democratic lean, shifting ratings to Lean Democratic or Tilt Democratic and giving Democrats a structural edge in voter registration and turnout. Incumbent Representative Darrell Issa’s March 2026 retirement and endorsement of San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond opened the race, removing a strong Republican advantage ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Trader consensus prices Democratic Party outcomes at 84.5 percent because the redrawn map and open-seat dynamics outweigh Republican consolidation efforts around Desmond, even as early polling shows him leading the field. The 13.5 percent Republican share reflects uncertainty over which Democrat advances to the November 3 general election and the district’s remaining competitiveness.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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