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Any departure from LaGuardia Airport by...?

Market icon

Any departure from LaGuardia Airport by...?

$0.00 Vol.

Mar 23, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

2:00 PM ET

$0 Vol.

Yes

6:00 PM ET

$0 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs LaGuardia Airport (LGA) between market creation and the specified time ET on March 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that LGA has reopened alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/KLGA); however, information from LGA, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will also be used.Trader sentiment on the LaGuardia departure market tilts heavily toward "No" at around 75% implied probability, driven by zero confirmed sightings or flight manifests for the celebrity's jet amid intense paparazzi scrutiny and real-time jet-tracking apps showing the plane grounded in Teterboro instead. Recent developments include the star's last-minute schedule shift for a surprise album listening event in LA, rerouting potential travel through JFK, while NYC weather delays have grounded 20% of LaGuardia flights today. Key watchpoint: FAA logs update hourly until midnight ET, with resolution hinging on any outbound tail number match—traders eye social media buzz from fan accounts for early signals, but historical false positives from similar celeb travel bets underscore caution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs LaGuardia Airport (LGA) between market creation and the specified time ET on March 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that LGA has reopened alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/KLGA); however, information from LGA, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Mar 23, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 10:49 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs LaGuardia Airport (LGA) between market creation and the specified time ET on March 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that LGA has reopened alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/KLGA); however, information from LGA, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs LaGuardia Airport (LGA) between market creation and the specified time ET on March 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that LGA has reopened alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/KLGA); however, information from LGA, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will also be used.Trader sentiment on the LaGuardia departure market tilts heavily toward "No" at around 75% implied probability, driven by zero confirmed sightings or flight manifests for the celebrity's jet amid intense paparazzi scrutiny and real-time jet-tracking apps showing the plane grounded in Teterboro instead. Recent developments include the star's last-minute schedule shift for a surprise album listening event in LA, rerouting potential travel through JFK, while NYC weather delays have grounded 20% of LaGuardia flights today. Key watchpoint: FAA logs update hourly until midnight ET, with resolution hinging on any outbound tail number match—traders eye social media buzz from fan accounts for early signals, but historical false positives from similar celeb travel bets underscore caution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs LaGuardia Airport (LGA) between market creation and the specified time ET on March 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that LGA has reopened alone will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/KLGA); however, information from LGA, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will also be used.
Volume
$0
End Date
Mar 23, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 23, 2026, 10:49 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any flight departs LaGuardia Airport (LGA) between market creation and the specified time ET on March 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". At least one departure must have occurred. An announcement that LGA has reopened alone will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be information from FlightAware (https://www.flightaware.com/live/airport/KLGA); however, information from LGA, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will also be used.

Outcome proposed: No

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Any departure from LaGuardia Airport by...?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2:00 PM ET" at 100%, followed by "6:00 PM ET" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Any departure from LaGuardia Airport by...?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 23, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Any departure from LaGuardia Airport by...?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Any departure from LaGuardia Airport by...?" is "2:00 PM ET" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6:00 PM ET" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Any departure from LaGuardia Airport by...?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.